Review of Critical Factors Affecting the Failure of Water Pipeline Infrastructure
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 149, Issue 10
Abstract
A growing population and urbanization place increased demands on water supply and distribution networks. Pipelines are one of the most critical components of water supply systems. It is, therefore, necessary to identify the relevant factors that affect the deterioration of water distribution pipelines. This will help decision makers in future planning and prioritization of the required maintenance. In this study, a systematic review is performed to identify critical factors that affect the failure of water pipelines. A meta-analysis is conducted to determine the relative importance of each factor that contributes to pipe failure. In addition, the source of contradictory results across studies is investigated. The results show that climatic factors, such as air temperature, minimum antecedent precipitation index, and net evaporation, contribute to water pipe failure. Additionally, the results of subgroup meta-analyses show that primary sources, such as pipe material and water pipe size, can lead to high heterogeneity across studies. This study is expected to help water utility owners to collect relevant data and make timely renewal decisions.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data utilized for conducting meta-analysis are depicted in Table 2 in this study, models, or software that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This research is supported by the National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). Financial support provided by McGill-UAE fellowships in Science and Engineering to the first author is highly appreciated.
References
Abdel-Mottaleb, N., P. Ghasemi Saghand, H. Charkhgard, and Q. Zhang. 2019. “An exact multiobjective optimization approach for evaluating water distribution infrastructure criticality and geospatial interdependence.” Water Resour. Res. 55 (7): 5255–5276. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024063.
Ahn, J., S. Lee, G. Lee, and J. Koo. 2005. “Predicting water pipe breaks using neural network.” Water Sci. Technol. Water Supply 5 (3–4): 159–172. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2005.0096.
Akram, M. R., and A. Can Zulfikar. 2020. “Identification of factors influencing sustainability of buried continuous pipelines.” Sustainability 12 (3): 960. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12030960.
Alanne, G. 2008. “Developing a model to predict water main failures.” Ph.D. thesis, Dept. of Agricultural, Civil, and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Southern Queensland.
Alawadhi, A., and D. M. Tartakovsky. 2020. “Bayesian update and method of distributions: Application to leak detection in transmission mains.” Water Resour. Res. 56 (2): e2019WR025879. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025879.
Alkasseh, J. M., M. N. Adlan, I. Abustan, H. A. Aziz, and A. B. M. Hanif. 2013. “Applying minimum night flow to estimate water loss using statistical modeling: A case study in Kinta Valley, Malaysia.” Water Resour. Manage. 27 (5): 1439–1455. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0247-2.
Almheiri, Z., and M. Meguid. 2019. Buried infrastructure in saline soils: A review. Laval, QC, Canada: Canadian Society for Civil Engineering.
Almheiri, Z., M. Meguid, and T. Zayed. 2020a. “An approach to predict the failure of water mains under climatic variations.” Int. J. Geosynth. Ground Eng. 6 (4): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40891-020-00237-8.
Almheiri, Z., M. Meguid, and T. Zayed. 2020b. “Intelligent approaches for predicting failure of water mains.” J. Pipeline Syst. Eng. Pract. 11 (4): 04020044. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)PS.1949-1204.0000485.
Arsénio, A. M., P. Dheenathayalan, R. Hanssen, J. Vreeburg, and L. Rietveld. 2015. “Pipe failure predictions in drinking water systems using satellite observations.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 11 (8): 1102–1111. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2014.938660.
Arsénio, A. M., I. Pieterse, J. Vreeburg, R. de Bont, and L. Rietveld. 2013. “Failure mechanisms and condition assessment of PVC push-fit joints in drinking water networks.” J. Water Supply Res. Technol. AQUA 62 (2): 78–85. https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2013.026.
Aşchilean, I., M. Iliescu, N. Ciont, and I. Giurca. 2018. “The unfavourable impact of street traffic on water distribution pipelines.” Water 10 (8): 1086. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10081086.
Barton, N. A., T. S. Farewell, and S. H. Hallett. 2020. “Using generalized additive models to investigate the environmental effects on pipe failure in clean water networks.” npj Clean Water 3 (1): 1–12. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-020-0077-3.
Barton, N. A., T. S. Farewell, S. H. Hallett, and T. F. Acland. 2019. “Improving pipe failure predictions: Factors affecting pipe failure in drinking water networks.” Water Res. 164 (Nov): 114926. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2019.114926.
Berardi, L., R. Ugarelli, J. Røstum, and O. Giustolisi. 2014. “Assessing mechanical vulnerability in water distribution networks under multiple failures.” Water Resour. Res. 50 (3): 2586–2599. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014770.
Biostat, I. 2020. Comprehensive meta-analysis. Englewood, NJ: Biostat.
Borenstein, M., L. V. Hedges, J. P. Higgins, and H. R. Rothstein. 2009. Introduction to meta-analysis. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470743386.
Bouchart, F., and I. Goulter. 1991. “Reliability improvements in design of water distribution networks recognizing valve location.” Water Resour. Res. 27 (12): 3029–3040. https://doi.org/10.1029/91WR00590.
Boxall, J., A. O’Hagan, S. Pooladsaz, A. Saul, and D. Unwin. 2007. “Estimation of burst rates in water distribution mains.” Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Water Manage. 160 (2): 73–82. https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.2007.160.2.73.
Bruaset, S., and S. Sægrov. 2018. “An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on the structural reliability of drinking water pipes in cold climate regions.” Water 10 (4): 411. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040411.
Chaudry, T. S. 2009. “Fibre-optic sensors condition monitoring and modelling of water mains in expansive clays.” Master’s thesis, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Manitoba.
Chowdhury, R., and M. Rajput. 2016. “Leakage and failures of water distribution mains in the city of Al Ain, UAE.” Water Pract. Technol. 11 (4): 806–814. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2016.086.
Claudio, K., V. Couallier, and Y. Le Gat. 2014. “Integration of time-dependent covariates in recurrent events modelling: Application to failures on drinking water networks.” J. Soc. Fr. Stat. 155 (3): 62–77.
Cubrinovski, M., M. Hughes, and T. O’Rourke. 2014. “Impacts of liquefaction on the potable water system of Christchurch in the 2010–2011 Canterbury (NZ) earthquakes.” J. Water Supply Res. Technol. AQUA 63 (2): 95–105. https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2013.004.
El-Abbasy, M. S., T. Zayed, H. El Chanati, F. Mosleh, A. Senouci, and H. Al-Derham. 2019. “Simulation-based deterioration patterns of water pipelines.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 15 (7): 965–982. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2019.1599965.
Erford, B. T., J. A. Savin-Murphy, and C. Butler. 2010. “Conducting a meta-analysis of counseling outcome research: Twelve steps and practical procedures.” Couns. Outcome Res. Eval. 1 (1): 19–43. https://doi.org/10.1177/2150137809356682.
Fares, H., and T. Zayed. 2010. “Hierarchical fuzzy expert system for risk of failure of water mains.” J. Pipeline Syst. Eng. Pract. 1 (1): 53–62. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)PS.1949-1204.0000037.
Farewell, T. S., S. Jude, and O. Pritchard. 2018. “How the impacts of burst water mains are influenced by soil sand content.” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 18 (11): 2951–2968. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2951-2018.
Garmabaki, A. S., A. Thaduri, A. Hedström, U. Kumar, J. Laue, S. Marklund, J. Odelius, T. Bansal, M. Rantatalo, and M. Asplund. 2019. “A survey on underground pipelines and railway infrastructure at cross-sections.” In Proc., European Safety and Reliability Conf. (ESREL 2019). Singapore: Research Publishing.
Gassman, S. L., I. Sasanakul, C. E. Pierce, E. Gheibi, R. Starcher, W. Ovalle, and M. Rahman. 2017. “Failures of pipe culverts from a 1000-year rainfall event in South Carolina.” In Proc., Geotechnical Frontiers 2017, 114–124. Reston, VA: ASCE. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784480441.013.
Gould, S., F. Boulaire, S. Burn, X.-L. Zhao, and J. Kodikara. 2011. “Seasonal factors influencing the failure of buried water reticulation pipes.” Water Sci. Technol. 63 (11): 2692–2699. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2011.507.
Gould, S., F. Boulaire, D. Marlow, and J. Kodikara. 2009. “Understanding how the Australian climate can affect pipe failure.” In Proc., OzWater’ 09 Conf. Proc. Chatswood, NSW, Canada: Australian Water Association.
Gurevitch, J., J. Koricheva, S. Nakagawa, and G. Stewart. 2018. “Meta-analysis and the science of research synthesis.” Nature 555 (7695): 175–182. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25753.
Habibian, A. 1994. “Effect of temperature changes on water-main breaks.” J. Transp. Eng. 120 (2): 312–321. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1994)120:2(312).
Housh, M., and A. Ostfeld. 2015. “An integrated logit model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.” Water Res. 75 (May): 210–223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2015.02.016.
Hu, Y., and D. Hubble. 2007. “Factors contributing to the failure of asbestos cement water mains.” Can. J. Civ. Eng. 34 (5): 608–621. https://doi.org/10.1139/l06-162.
Hussein, M., and T. Zayed. 2021. “Critical factors for successful implementation of just-in-time concept in modular integrated construction: A systematic review and meta-analysis.” J. Cleaner Prod. 284 (Feb): 124716. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124716.
Isoyama, R., E. Ishida, K. Yune, and T. Shirozu. 2000. “Seismic damage estimation procedure for water supply pipelines.” Water Supply 18 (3): 63–68.
Jun, H. J., J. K. Park, and C. H. Bae. 2020. “Factors affecting steel water-transmission pipe failure and pipe-failure mechanisms.” J. Environ. Eng. 146 (6): 04020034. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EE.1943-7870.0001692.
Kabir, G., S. Tesfamariam, A. Francisque, and R. Sadiq. 2015a. “Evaluating risk of water mains failure using a Bayesian belief network model.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 240 (1): 220–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.06.033.
Kabir, G., S. Tesfamariam, and R. Sadiq. 2015b. “Prediction of water mains failure: A Bayesian approach.” In Proc., 12th Int. Conf. on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP). Vancouver, BC, Canada: Univ. of British Columbia.
Karimian, F., H. Elsawah, T. Zayed, O. Moselhi, and A. Al Hawari. 2015. “Forecasting breakage rate in water distribution networks using evolutionary polynomial regression.” In Proc., 5th Int./11th Construction Specialty Conf. Vancouver, BC, Canada: Univ. of British Columbia.
Kettler, A., and I. Goulter. 1985. “An analysis of pipe breakage in urban water distribution networks.” Can. J. Civ. Eng. 12 (2): 286–293. https://doi.org/10.1139/l85-030.
Kleiner, Y., and B. Rajani. 1999. “Using limited data to assess future needs.” J. Am. Water Works Assoc. 91 (7): 47–61. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1551-8833.1999.tb08664.x.
Kleiner, Y., and B. Rajani. 2001. “Comprehensive review of structural deterioration of water mains: Statistical models.” Urban Water 3 (3): 131–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1462-0758(01)00033-4.
Kleiner, Y., and B. Rajani. 2002. “Modeling the deterioration of water mains and planning their renewal.” In Proc., Infra 2002 Int. Conf. on Urban Infrastructure. Ottawa: National Research Council Canada, Institute of Research in Construction.
Kleiner, Y., B. Rajani, and S. Wang. 2007. “Consideration of static and dynamic effects to plan water main renewal.” In Proc., Middle East Water 2007, 4th Int. Exhibition and Conf. for Water Technology. Ottawa: National Research Council Canada, Institute of Research in Construction.
Koricheva, J., J. Gurevitch, and K. Mengersen. 2013. Handbook of meta-analysis in ecology and evolution. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Kuraoka, S., and J. Rainer. 1996. “Damage to water distribution system caused by the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake.” Can. J. Civ. Eng. 23 (3): 665–677. https://doi.org/10.1139/l96-882.
Kutyłowska, M., and H. Hotloś. 2014. “Failure analysis of water supply system in the Polish city of Głogów.” Eng. Fail. Anal. 41 (Jun): 23–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2013.07.019.
Lee, S., and S. Burian. 2020. “Triple top line–based sustainability measure for water distribution systems.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 26 (3): 04020027. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000561.
Makar, J. 2000. “A preliminary analysis of failures in grey cast iron water pipes.” Eng. Fail. Anal. 7 (1): 43–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1350-6307(99)00005-9.
Mehran Jafari, S., O. Bozorg-Haddad, and M. Reza Nikoo. 2022. “Application of artificial neural network and fuzzy logic in the urban water distribution networks pipe failure modelling.” In Computational intelligence for water and environmental sciences, 333–354. Singapore: Springer.
Milone, V. 2012. “The effect of temperature and material on mains pipe breaks in Gothenburg.” Master’s thesis, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Chalmers Univ. of Technology.
Moerman, A., B. Wols, and R. Diemel. 2016. “The effects of traffic loads on drinking water main failure frequencies in the Netherlands.” Water Pract. Technol. 11 (3): 524–530. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2016.057.
Moher, D., A. Liberati, J. Tetzlaff, D. G. Altman, and P. Group. 2009. “Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses: The PRISMA statement.” PLoS Med. 6 (7): e1000097. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000097.
Mora-Rodríguez, J., X. Delgado-Galván, H. M. Ramos, and P. A. López-Jiménez. 2014. “An overview of leaks and intrusion for different pipe materials and failures.” Urban Water J. 11 (1): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2012.739630.
Nishiyama, M. 2013. Forecasting water main failures in the city of Kingston using artificial neural networks. Kingston, ON, Canada: Queen’s Univ.
Nomad, S. 2020. “Coldest countries in the world.” Accessed May 9, 2021. https://www.swedishnomad.com/coldest-countries-in-the-world/.
Nuti, C., A. Rasulo, and I. Vanzi. 2010. “Seismic safety of network structures and infrastructures.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 6 (1–2): 95–110. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732470802663813.
O’Day, D. K. 1982. “Organizing and analyzing leak and break data for making main replacement decisions.” J. Am. Water Works Assoc. 74 (11): 588–594. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1551-8833.1982.tb05016.x.
Park, J. I., J. H. Lambert, and Y. Y. Haimes. 1998. “Hydraulic power capacity of water distribution networks in uncertain conditions of deterioration.” Water Resour. Res. 34 (12): 3605–3614. https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01377.
Pietrucha-Urbanik, K. 2015a. “Failure analysis and assessment on the exemplary water supply network.” Eng. Fail. Anal. 57 (Nov): 137–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2015.07.036.
Pietrucha-Urbanik, K. 2015b. “Failure prediction in water supply system–current issues.” In Proc., Int. Conf. on Dependability and Complex Systems. Berlin: Springer.
Pratt, C., H. Yang, M. Hodkiewicz, and S. Oldham. 2011. “Factors influencing pipe failures in the WA environment.” In Proc., Co-operative Education for Enterprise Development CEED Seminar Proc. Perth, WA, Australia: Univ. of Western Australia.
Qi, Z., F. Zheng, D. Guo, T. Zhang, Y. Shao, T. Yu, K. Zhang, and H. R. Maier. 2018. “A comprehensive framework to evaluate hydraulic and water quality impacts of pipe breaks on water distribution systems.” Water Resour. Res. 54 (10): 8174–8195. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022736.
Rajeev, P., J. Kodikara, D. Robert, P. Zeman, and B. Rajani. 2014. “Factors contributing to large diameter water pipe failure.” Water Asset Manage. Int. 10 (3): 9–14.
Robles-Velasco, A., P. Cortés, J. Muñuzuri, and L. Onieva. 2020. “Prediction of pipe failures in water supply networks using logistic regression and support vector classification.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 196 (Apr): 106754. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106754.
Schober, P., C. Boer, and L. A. Schwarte. 2018. “Correlation coefficients: Appropriate use and interpretation.” Anesthesia Analg. 126 (5): 1763–1768. https://doi.org/10.1213/ANE.0000000000002864.
Shi, F. 2018. “Data-driven predictive analytics for water infrastructure condition assessment and management.” Ph.D. thesis, Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Univ. of British Columbia.
Shi, W.-Z., A.-S. Zhang, and O.-K. Ho. 2013. “Spatial analysis of water mains failure clusters and factors: A Hong Kong case study.” Ann. GIS 19 (2): 89–97. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475683.2013.782509.
Shirzad, A., M. Tabesh, and R. Farmani. 2014. “A comparison between performance of support vector regression and artificial neural network in prediction of pipe burst rate in water distribution networks.” KSCE J. Civ. Eng. 18 (4): 941–948. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-014-0537-8.
Tavakoli, R., A. Sharifara, and M. Najafi. 2020. “Artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro-fuzzy models to predict remaining useful life of water pipelines.” In Proc., World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2020: Water, Wastewater, and Stormwater and Water Desalination and Reuse. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Taylor, D. D., A. H. Slocum, and A. J. Whittle. 2019. “Demand satisfaction as a framework for understanding intermittent water supply systems.” Water Resour. Res. 55 (7): 5217–5237. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024124.
Trifunac, M., and M. Todorovska. 1997. “Northridge, California, earthquake of 1994: Density of pipe breaks and surface strains.” Soil Dyn. Earthquake Eng. 16 (3): 193–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0267-7261(96)00042-5.
Verheugd, J. 2020. Predicting water pipe failures: A Neural Hawkes Process approach. Eindhoven, Netherlands: Eindhoven Univ. of Technology.
Wilson, D., Y. R. Filion, and I. D. Moore. 2015. “Identifying factors that influence the factor of safety and probability of failure of large-diameter, cast iron water mains with a mechanistic, stochastic model: A case study in the City of Hamilton.” Procedia Eng. 119 (Jan): 130–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.08.863.
Wilson, D., I. Moore, and Y. Filion. 2017. “Using sensitivity analysis to identify the critical factors that lower the factor of safety of large-diameter cast iron mains.” Urban Water J. 14 (7): 685–693. https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2016.1236137.
Wolfe, T. F. 1946. “How to prevent breaks in cast-iron pipe.” J. Am. Water Works Assoc. 38 (6): 765–771. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1551-8833.1946.tb16137.x.
Wols, B., and P. Van Thienen. 2014a. “Impact of weather conditions on pipe failure: A statistical analysis.” J. Water Supply Res. Technol. AQUA 63 (3): 212–223. https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2013.088.
Wols, B., and P. Van Thienen. 2014b. “Modelling the effect of climate change induced soil settling on drinking water distribution pipes.” Comput. Geotech. 55 (Jan): 240–247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2013.09.003.
Wols, B., and P. Van Thienen. 2016. “Impact of climate on pipe failure: Predictions of failures for drinking water distribution systems.” Eur. J. Transp. Infrastruct. Res. 16 (1): 240–253. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2016.16.1.3123.
Wols, B., A. Vogelaar, A. Moerman, and B. Raterman. 2019. “Effects of weather conditions on drinking water distribution pipe failures in the Netherlands.” Water Supply 19 (2): 404–416. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2018.085.
Yamijala, S., S. D. Guikema, and K. Brumbelow. 2009. “Statistical models for the analysis of water distribution system pipe break data.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 94 (2): 282–293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2008.03.011.
Yazdekhasti, S., K. R. Piratla, S. Atamturktur, and A. A. Khan. 2017. “Novel vibration-based technique for detecting water pipeline leakage.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 13 (6): 731–742. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2016.1188318.
Zamenian, H., F. L. Mannering, D. M. Abraham, and T. Iseley. 2017. “Modeling the frequency of water main breaks in water distribution systems: Random-parameters negative-binomial approach.” J. Infrastruct. Syst. 23 (2): 04016035. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000336.
Zangenehmadar, Z., and O. Moselhi. 2016a. “Assessment of remaining useful life of pipelines using different artificial neural networks models.” J. Perform. Constr. Facil. 30 (5): 04016032. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000886.
Zangenehmadar, Z., and O. Moselhi. 2016b. “Prioritizing deterioration factors of water pipelines using Delphi method.” Measurement 90 (Aug): 491–499. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2016.05.001.
Żywiec, J., I. Piegdoń, and B. Tchórzewska-Cieślak. 2019. “Failure analysis of the water supply network in the aspect of climate changes on the example of the central and eastern europe region.” Sustainability 11 (24): 6886. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11246886.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Aug 3, 2023
Published in print: Oct 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Jan 3, 2024
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.