Prediction of Extreme Wave Heights and Wind Velocities

A Poisson-Gumbel compound extreme value distribution is suggested as the frequency influenced by a typhoon agrees well with the Poisson distribution, and the wave heights under the typhoon condition agree well with the Gumbel distribution. The results obtained by such a distribution are close to those of Pearson type III curve and Gumbel curve, and the method shows its primary advantage in the stability of its computing results even in the condition of inadequate observed data. A large number of statistical analogous experiments were completed on an electronic computer. It shows that in the case of a long return period, the results obtained by this new method are more consistent with the experimental data than those computed by Gumbel curve. This method can be used for predicting design wave heights and wind velocities in ocean engineering.