ASMUG–Simulation Model of Urban Growth

While differing substantially in structure, past attempts at mathematical models of urban development have generally had certain characteristics in common. They have usually: (1)Operated at a relatively low level of spatial aggregation (of the order of a census tract); (2)been based on accessibility as a determinant of location; and (3)have assumed that past trends will be continued with little change. In contrast, the ASMUG model: (1)Operates at a higher level of spatial aggregation (of order 1 mile); (2)includes such factors as housing quality, amenities and tax rates as well as accessibility; and (3)reacts to policy changes by simulating the behavior of a cross section of the area’s households through time. Verification of the model was performed by simulating the behavior of Erie County, New York in the period 1960 to 1970.