Urban Mobility in the Postpandemic Stage: A Comprehensive Investigation of a Variety of Cities in China
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 149, Issue 8
Abstract
The global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected the urban mobility of nations around the world. The pandemic may even have a potentially lasting impact on travel behaviors during the post-pandemic stage. China has basically stopped the spread of COVID-19 and reopened the economy, providing an unprecedented environment for investigating post-pandemic travel behaviors. This study conducts multiple investigations to show the changes in travel behaviors in the post-pandemic stage, on the basis of empirical travel data in a variety of cities in China. Specifically, this study demonstrates the changes in road network travel speed in 57 case cities and the changes in subway ridership in 26 case cities. Comprehensive comparisons can indicate the potential modal share in the post-pandemic stage. Further, this study conducts a case analysis of Beijing, where the city has experienced two waves of COVID-19. The variations in travel speed in the road network of Beijing at different stages of the pandemic help reveal the public’s responses towards the varying severity of the pandemic. Finally, a case study of the Yuhang district in Hangzhou is conducted to demonstrate the changes in traffic volume and vehicle travel distance amid the post-pandemic stage based on license plate recognition data. Results indicate a decline in subway trips in the post-pandemic stage among case cities. The vehicular traffic in cities with subways has recovered in peak hours on weekdays and has been even more congested than the pre-pandemic levels; whereas the vehicular traffic in cities without subways has not rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. This situation implies a potential modal shift from public transportation to private vehicular travel modes. Results also indicate that commuting traffic is sensitive to the severity of the pandemic. This may be because countermeasures, e.g., work-from-home and suspension of non-essential businesses, will be implemented if the pandemic restarts. The travel speed in non-peak hours and on non-workdays is higher than pre-pandemic levels, indicating that non-essential travel demand may be reduced and the public’s vigilance towards the pandemic may continue to the post-pandemic stage. These findings can help improve policymaking strategies in the post-pandemic new normal.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2022RC017), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFB2600500), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71871123), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2021M700368), and the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by BAST (BYESS2023137). The authors would also like to thank the Baidu Map for providing the travel speed data of different case cities.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions.
References
Adanu, E. K., D. Brown, S. Jones, and A. Parrish. 2021. “How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect road crashes and crash outcomes in Alabama?” Accid. Anal. Prev. 163 (Dec): 106428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2021.106428.
Brodeur, A., N. Cook, and T. Wright. 2020. “On the effects of COVID-19 safer-at-home policies on social distancing, car crashes and pollution.” J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 106 (Mar): 102427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102427.
Chand, S., E. Yee, A. Alsultan, and V. V. Dixit. 2021. “A descriptive analysis on the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on road traffic incidents in Sydney, Australia.” Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 18 (21): 11701. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182111701.
Chinazzi, M., et al. 2020. “The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.” Science 368 (6489): 395–400. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba9757.
Cui, Z., M. Zhu, S. Wang, P. Wang, Y. Zhou, Q. Cao, C. Kopca, and Y. Wang. 2020. “Traffic performance score for measuring the impact of COVID-19 on urban mobility.” Preprint, submitted July 1, 2020. http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.00648.
Currie, G., T. Jain, and L. Aston. 2021. “Evidence of a post-COVID change in travel behaviour—Self-reported expectations of commuting in Melbourne.” Transp. Res. Part A: Policy Pract. 153 (Nov): 218–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.09.009.
Goenaga, B., N. Matini, D. Karanam, and B. S. Underwood. 2021. “Disruption and recovery: Initial assessment of COVID-19 traffic impacts in North Carolina and Virginia.” J. Transp. Eng. Part A: Syst. 147 (4): 06021001. https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.0000518.
Goldbaum, C. 2020. “Is the subway risky? It may be safer than you think.” New York Times. Accessed August 2, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/02/nyregion/nyc-subway-coronavirus-safety.html.
Gössling, S., D. Scott, and C. M. Hall. 2020. “Pandemics, tourism and global change: A rapid assessment of COVID-19.” J. Sustainable Tourism 29 (1): 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2020.1758708.
Hao, F., Q. Xiao, and K. Chon. 2020. “COVID-19 and China’s hotel industry: Impacts, a disaster management framework, and post-pandemic agenda.” Int. J. Hosp. Manage. 90 (Sep): 102636. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2020.102636.
Hu, S., C. Xiong, M. Yang, H. Younes, W. Luo, and L. Zhang. 2021. “A big-data driven approach to analyzing and modeling human mobility trend under non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 pandemic.” Transp. Res. Part C: Emerging Technol. 124 (Mar): 102955. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2020.102955.
Hudda, N., M. C. Simon, A. P. Patton, and J. L. Durant. 2020. “Reductions in traffic-related black carbon and ultrafine particle number concentrations in an urban neighborhood during the COVID-19 pandemic.” Sci. Total Environ. 742 (Nov): 140931. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140931.
Ivanov, D., and A. Das. 2020. “Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) and supply chain resilience: A research note.” Int. J. Integr. Supply Manage. 13 (1): 90–102. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJISM.2020.107780.
Kim, K. 2021. “Impact of COVID-19 on usage patterns of a bike-sharing system: Case study of Seoul.” J. Transp. Eng. Part A: Syst. 147 (10): 05021006. https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.0000591.
Kraemer, M. U. G., et al. 2020. “The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China.” Science 368 (6490): 493–497. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb4218.
Li, J., T. H. H. Nguyen, and J. A. Coca-Stefaniak. 2021. “Coronavirus impacts on post-pandemic planned travel behaviours.” Ann Tourism Res. 86 (Jan): 102964. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.102964.
Liu, Z., R. Li, X. Wang, and P. Shang. 2018. “Effects of vehicle restriction policies: Analysis using license plate recognition data in Langfang, China.” Transp. Res. Part A: Policy Pract. 118 (Dec): 89–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.09.001.
Liu, Z., and R. Stern. 2021. “Quantifying the traffic impacts of the COVID-19 shutdown.” J. Transp. Eng. Part A: Syst. 147 (5): 04021014. https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.0000527.
Liu, Z., X. C. Wang, J. Dai, X. Li, and R. Li. 2022. “Impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on travel behavior in large cities of China: Investigation on the lockdown and reopening phases.” J. Transp. Eng. Part A: Syst. 148 (2): 05021011. https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.0000630.
Loa, P., S. Hossain, Y. Liu, and K. Nurul Habib. 2022. “How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the use of ride-sourcing services? An empirical evidence-based investigation for the Greater Toronto Area.” Transp. Rese. Part A: Policy Pract. 155 (Jan): 46–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.11.013.
Manca, F., A. Sivakumar, J. Pawlak, and N. J. Brodzinski. 2021. “Will we fly again? Modeling air travel demand in light of COVID-19 through a London case study.” Transp. Res. Rec. 2677 (4): 03611981211025287. https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981211025287.
Ou, S., et al. 2020. “Machine learning model to project the impact of COVID-19 on US motor gasoline demand.” Nat. Energy 5 (9): 666–673. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0662-1.
Park, J. 2020. “Changes in subway ridership in response to COVID-19 in Seoul, South Korea: Implications for social distancing.” Cureus 12 (4): e7668. https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.7668.
Qureshi, A. I., W. Huang, S. Khan, I. Lobanova, F. Siddiq, C. R. Gomez, and M. F. K. Suri. 2020. “Mandated societal lockdown and road traffic accidents.” Accid. Anal. Prev. 146 (Oct): 105747. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105747.
Tanne, J. H., E. Hayasaki, M. Zastrow, P. Pulla, P. Smith, and A. G. Rada. 2020. “COVID-19: how doctors and healthcare systems are tackling coronavirus worldwide.” BMJ 368 (Mar): m1090. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1090.
Teixeira, J. F., and M. Lopes. 2020. “The link between bike sharing and subway use during the COVID-19 pandemic: The case-study of New York’s Citi Bike.” Transp. Res. Interdiscip. Perspect. 6 (Jul): 100166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100166.
Vos, J. D. 2020. “The effect of COVID-19 and subsequent social distancing on travel behavior.” Trans. Res. Interdiscip. Perspect. 5 (May): 100121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100121.
Wang, W., W. Miao, Y. Liu, Y. Deng, and Y. Cao. 2022. “The impact of COVID-19 on the ride-sharing industry and its recovery: Causal evidence from China.” Transp. Res. Part A: Policy Pract. 155 (Jan): 128–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.10.005.
Xiang, J., E. Austin, T. Gould, T. Larson, J. Shirai, Y. Liu, J. Marshall, and E. Seto. 2020. “Impacts of the COVID-19 responses on traffic-related air pollution in a Northwestern US city.” Sci. Total Environ. 747 (Dec): 141325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141325.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 149 • Issue 8 • August 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 5, 2022
Accepted: Mar 24, 2023
Published online: May 29, 2023
Published in print: Aug 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Oct 29, 2023
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.