Deterministic and Stochastic Capacity in Work Zones: Findings from a Long-Term Work Zone
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 147, Issue 1
Abstract
This paper describes the development of a breakdown probability model for a long-term work zone in a suburban area. It was found that the Gompertz distribution best describes the breakdown probability at a work zone. In the absence of work zone breakdown probability models, deterministic capacities may still be used for work zone planning because the work zone data sets needed for the construction of breakdown probability models are scarce. The capacity values and the corresponding breakdown probabilities associated with 10 common definitions of deterministic work zone capacity were determined. This information will assist practitioners in choosing work zone capacity definitions that correspond to an acceptable risk of congestion within their jurisdictions. A data mining method was proposed to automate the process for identifying traffic breakdown, and metrics were proposed to assess goodness of fit of various breakdown probability models.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author by request. Traffic volume, speed, and occupancy collected at the work zone taper are available from the corresponding author by request. These data were used to develop the breakdown probability models presented in this paper.
Acknowledgments
The authors thank the Missouri DOT for providing work zone traffic sensor data.
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Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 147 • Issue 1 • January 2021
Copyright
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 21, 2019
Accepted: Aug 13, 2020
Published online: Oct 19, 2020
Published in print: Jan 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Mar 19, 2021
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