Accident-Oriented Delay Propagation in High-Speed Railway Network
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 146, Issue 4
Abstract
This paper presents an approach to estimate the delay propagation in a high-speed railway (HSR) network under accident conditions. Considering the complexity and dynamics of HSR accidents, different levels of delay are discussed using clustering analysis, and the delay propagation is analyzed both forward and backward using different mathematical formulations. The forward delay propagation is described by a fitting distribution between arrival delay and forward resistance of accidents at different levels. The backward-delay-propagating mechanism is exploited by a combined model of horizontal propagation and vertical propagation under corresponding constraints of minimum headway and emergency measures. To integrate the forward- and the backward-propagating models, a global algorithmic framework is then designed with special consideration of routes separation. Finally, an applied case analysis of regional rail network in the Yangtze River Delta verifies the feasibility of the delay propagation algorithm. Through a validation test to accidents with detailed records, results suggest that the proposed algorithm can conservatively estimate the delay distribution with an accuracy greater than 75%.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author by request. The data available are listed as follows:
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The original data of primary accident delay of 12 months (in Chinese);
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The timetables of HSR lines in the research area (in pictures);
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Detailed records of accident cause and corresponding emergency measures (in Chinese); and
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The GIS files of the regional HSR network.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China under Grant No. 2018YFB1201403 “Research on Technologies of Improving Comprehensive Efficiency and Service Quality in Networked High-speed Railways.” We deeply thank Yongjian Zhang at China Railway Shanghai Bureau Group Co., Ltd. for his assistance in data collection.
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Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 146 • Issue 4 • April 2020
Copyright
©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 10, 2018
Accepted: Sep 10, 2019
Published online: Jan 23, 2020
Published in print: Apr 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Jun 23, 2020
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