Determinants of Bus Riding Time Deviations: Relationship between Driving Patterns and Transit Performance
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 145, Issue 1
Abstract
Urban bus services are subject to high levels of uncertainty and disturbances. Methods to determine the timetable are designed to absorb variations in riding times between stops by allocating additional travel time. The propagation of service unreliability along the route could be restrained by drivers’ adjustment at stops and between stops. This paper analyzes the main determinants of bus riding times deviations based on automatic vehicle location (AVL) data from four trunk lines in Stockholm, Sweden. The analysis indicates that drivers can and do adjust their speeds in response to instantaneous real-time schedule adherence information, although these adjustments depend on the underlying control scheme: locations where the performance is measured. A model for bus riding time deviations was estimated with autoregressive effects, performance indicators, link characteristics, and trip attributes as the explanatory factors. The results can support the development of travel time prediction and real-time control strategies that take drivers’ response to operations into account. This highlights the importance of the human factor in designing control schemes and the corresponding transit performance evaluation.
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Acknowledgments
An insightful discussion with Professor Nigel Wilson triggered this work. The Transport Administration of the Stockholm County Council kindly provided the data that enabled this analysis. Discussions with operation managers, dispatchers, and drivers from Keolis Sweden shed light on the bus operations environment. The author also thanks Mario Contreras Torres for his assistance with data analysis.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 145 • Issue 1 • January 2019
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 21, 2017
Accepted: Jul 16, 2018
Published online: Oct 31, 2018
Published in print: Jan 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Mar 31, 2019
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