Population Forecasting by Sanitary Engineers

A critical evaluation of population forecasting techniques currently (1964) used by sanitary engineers is presented. Methods for estimating population are reviewed and sources of population statistics are outlined. Graphical (plotting) methods, mathematical or formula methods, statistical methods of correlation and regression analysis, ratio methods using other estimates or forecasts, component methods based on the analysis of growth composition (births, deaths, migration), and methods based on economic forecasts, particularly those of future employment, are described. The relative accuracy of various methods is reviewed, and improvements in current sanitary engineering methodology are suggested, including the adoption of more analytical forecasting techniques.