Bayesian Approach to Prototype Testing

The strength of series-produced structures is uncertain because of modelling error and material parameter uncertainty. By testing of prototypes, information on both uncertainties is obtained. Because of strength correlation in a series, sampling is considered non-random. The Bayesian Method is used to consider the problem of relating prior knowledge and test data to a prescribed characteristic value of the load carrying capacity, i.e., a prescribed fractile of the strength distribution, or a target value of a reliability index. Examples show application to prototype testing structural assemblies or parts. It is concluded that even a slight correlation may have a significant influence on the estimated strength.