Research Article
May 1968
Probabilistic Models for Seismic Force Design
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of the Structural Division
Volume 94, Issue 5
Abstract
Probabilistic procedures for forecasting occurrence and intensities of earthquakes are presented based on the historical record of Modified Mercalli intensities. The occurrence is assumed Poisson for each intensity level. Forecasting is accomplished using Bayesian procedures. Forcasts for the San Francisco region are made for a 10-yr period. The optimization of design decisions is made using a statistical decision theory model. Three alternate designs are compared for a structure on the basis of expected losses for a ten-yr period. The technique of estimating expected losses given an earthquake of each intensity level is illustrated. Time to occurrence problems are also discussed. More complex models using a multinomial model for intensity and Poisson occurrence are introduced including the problem of multiple occurrence, Bayesian forecasting relationships are derived.
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Published In
Journal of the Structural Division
Volume 94 • Issue 5 • May 1968
Pages: 1175 - 1196
Copyright
© 1968 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: May 1968
Published online: Feb 1, 2021
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Authors
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Jack R. Benjamin, F.ASCE
Prof. of Structural Engrg., Stanford Univ., Stanford, Calif.
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.