Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Overpressure Burst of Pipeline with Pressure-Protection Systems in Case of Blockage
Publication: Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 37, Issue 4
Abstract
Although overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems occurs infrequently in case of blockage, it endangers personnel safety and causes serious economic loss when it happens. Therefore, assessing the dynamic probabilistic risk of overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems in case of blockage is necessary to prevent accidents. This study proposes a method based on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) for assessing the dynamic probabilistic risk of overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems in case of blockage. First, a fault tree (FT) model of pipeline overpressure burst is constructed. The constructed FT model is then mapped into the DBN model to solve the uncertainty of the model. Second, the leaky Noisy-OR gate is used to define the uncertain logical relationships of relevant nodes in the DBN model. The effect of common cause failures on a pipeline’s redundant pressure-protection system is analyzed using the multiple error shock model. Finally, a natural gas export pipeline is presented as an example to demonstrate the proposed method. Results show that the method can effectively assess the dynamic probabilistic risk of overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems in case of blockage.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, and code generated or used during the study appear in the published article.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Development Project in Key Technical Field of Sichuan Province (2019ZDZX0030), International Science and Technology Innovation Cooperation Program of Sichuan Province (2021YFH0115), and Nanchong-SWPU Science and Technology Strategic Cooperation Project (SXHZ057).
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Published In
Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume 37 • Issue 4 • August 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 18, 2022
Accepted: Mar 22, 2023
Published online: May 25, 2023
Published in print: Aug 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Oct 25, 2023
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