Dynamic Assessment of the Transfer Risks in China’s Public–Private Partnership Water Projects: A System Dynamics Approach
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 29, Issue 4
Abstract
Public–private partnerships (PPPs) are the primary means of delivering water projects in developing countries. In China, most water PPP projects remain in the construction and operation stages, with few having passed to the transfer stage. The lack of experience in managing transfer risks is itself an impediment to the further development of China’s PPPs. Thus, this study attempts to address two research concerns: (1) identifying transfer risks and risk factors, and (2) dynamically evaluating those transfer risks. Literature review, expert interviews, and process modeling via Integrated Computer-Aided Manufacturing Definition Method 0 (IDEF0) were utilized to identify and assess transfer risks with risk factors. The time-varying nature of transfer risks was evaluated using a system dynamics method. Eleven transfer risks and their value accumulation curves were identified. Value growth of legal and residual value risks remains steady over time. The risk values of contract, political, overhaul, information, and employee risks pose severe initial threats, but reduce on project transfer. However, credit, data transfer, after-transfer operational, and succession operator risks tend to escalate over time. The proposed model allows for a dynamic evaluation of transfer risks, and in so doing, improves the efficiency of PPP project transfer risk management.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or codes that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China for its financial support (Grant No. 71971147).
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Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 29 • Issue 4 • December 2023
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© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 2, 2023
Accepted: Aug 18, 2023
Published online: Oct 11, 2023
Published in print: Dec 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Mar 11, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Bibliographies
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- Computer aided operations
- Computer models
- Computer programming
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- Computing in civil engineering
- Construction engineering
- Construction management
- Developing countries
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- Engineering fundamentals
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- Models (by type)
- Practice and Profession
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- Public private partnership
- Risk management
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