Integrated Engineering–Economic Analysis for Multihazard Damage and Loss Assessment
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 29, Issue 4
Abstract
This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the direct and general equilibrium losses for a testbed community subjected to a megathrust earthquake and tsunami hazard originating in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. The testbed community studied consists of buildings for all residential and commercial sectors in the economy. A fragility analysis and functionality model are applied to estimate the direct damage and losses of these buildings at the parcel level. The process relies on Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) that propagate uncertainties from the hazards through to the damage and loss models. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to assess aggregated general equilibrium losses to the community. As an important mitigation strategy, seismic retrofit reduces the direct loss to building functionality and general equilibrium losses. Results show that the vulnerability of economic sectors depends on the hazard type, hazard intensity, economic zone, and building type, and the risks vary with the recurrence interval. The highest risks are associated with 500-year and 1,000-year mean recurrence intervals for joint seismic–tsunami hazards, respectively. Results from assessing different design alternatives show that whereas retrofitting all buildings to the highest code level considered results in the lowest losses, retrofitting only commercial buildings can be an efficient retrofit option for enhancing community resilience when controlling for costs. Last, a sensitivity analysis shows that losses and associated risks are sensitive to the definition of building functionality, which highlights the necessity for a common definition of building functionality when performing vulnerability analyses.
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Data Availability Statement
Data sets used in this study for the city of Seaside, Oregon, including built, natural, and social systems, are available in DesignSafe: https://www.designsafe-ci.org/data/browser/public/designsafe.storage.published/PRJ-3390. Other data and codes, including the CGE model, are available in the IN-CORE repository online, in accordance with funder data retention policies.
Acknowledgments
The Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning is a NIST-funded Center of Excellence; the Center is funded through a cooperative agreement between the US National Institute of Standards and Technology and Colorado State University (NIST Financial Assistance Award Nos. 70NANB15H044 and 70NANB20H008). The findings and views expressed are those of the authors and may not represent the official position of the National Institute of Standards and Technology or the US Department of Commerce.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 29 • Issue 4 • December 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 29, 2022
Accepted: Aug 3, 2023
Published online: Sep 26, 2023
Published in print: Dec 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Feb 26, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Buildings
- Commercial buildings
- Computer models
- Construction engineering
- Construction methods
- Disaster risk management
- Disasters and hazards
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering mechanics
- Equilibrium
- Facilities (by type)
- Models (by type)
- Rehabilitation
- Seismic tests
- Sensitivity analysis
- Statics (mechanics)
- Structural engineering
- Structures (by type)
- Tests (by type)
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