Multiscenario Analysis of Hydrological Responses to Climate Change over River Basins of the Western Ghats of India
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 29, Issue 5
Abstract
In the face of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, our study investigates the intricate regional dynamics of hydrological responses across three vital river basins of the Western Ghats of India. Employing advanced eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) ensemble models based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data, the article explores the anticipated changes in the climate variables under two future scenarios. The findings reveal a compelling narrative of temperature fluctuations, with increased warming in future decades from November to June ushering in warmer winters and extended summer seasons. These climatic shifts carry profound implications for rainfall patterns, potentially disrupting rainfall during the pivotal months of June and July up to the decade 2030s, with a more pronounced increase in the Purna River Basin (PRB) after the decade 2050s. The projected future climate scenarios indicate that the Vamanapuram River Basin (VRB) and PRB will experience contrasting patterns of dry and wet events, with the VRB facing severe to extreme dry and the PRB witnessing increased moderate to extreme wet events under high-emission scenarios. Additionally, the PRB may experience the paradox of increasing wetness and aridity. These insights provide crucial guidance for policy formulation and adaptation measures to safeguard agriculture and other vital sectors in the face of evolving climate conditions.
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Data Availability Statement
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data are available to download from https://www.imdpune.gov.in/lrfindex.php. The downscaled CMIP6 data used in this study are made available by Mishra et al. (2020) at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3874046.
Acknowledgments
The authors express their sincere gratitude to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for providing the CMIP6 data set. Also, the India Meteorological Department is acknowledged for providing IMD data to the user. Thanks also go to the Centre for System Design (CSD): A Centre of Excellence at NITK-Surathkal for providing the facilities.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 29 • Issue 5 • October 2024
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© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Nov 28, 2023
Accepted: Apr 12, 2024
Published online: Jun 27, 2024
Published in print: Oct 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Nov 27, 2024
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