A Hybrid Approach for Regional Low-Flow Frequency Analysis for the Upper Tigris and Euphrates Basin
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 28, Issue 6
Abstract
The Tigris and Euphrates basin is a challenging watershed because its water resources are critical for five countries. Therefore, this research analyzed and estimated the low flow index and its risk of occurrence. Based on 30 unregulated stations in the upper Tigris and Euphrates basin, different low flow indexes were estimated. A multivariate and hybrid principle component regression (PCR) regional model was used to assign the relationship between basin characteristics and low flow indexes in the homogeneous regions. The model performance showed that the principle component regression outperformed the regression models. The jackknife procedure indicated that the model performance for short-duration low flows is weak, but it is relatively good for long-duration low flows. This study suggests that hydrologic drought of the Tigris and Euphrates basin should be investigated more carefully for better water resources management in the changing socio-environmental system of the Middle East.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code used during the study were provided by a third party. Direct requests for these materials may be made to the provider as indicated in the Acknowledgements.
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the Scientific and Technological Research council of Turkey (TUBITAK) (Project No. 1059B211900291) for supporting this study. Reza Modarres also is grateful to Isfahan University of Technology for supporting his visit to Ankara University for this research.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 28 • Issue 6 • June 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 26, 2022
Accepted: Jan 9, 2023
Published online: Mar 23, 2023
Published in print: Jun 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Aug 23, 2023
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