Settlement Prediction of the Ballina Embankment, Australia, Considering Creep
Publication: Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 150, Issue 5
Abstract
The prediction of time-dependent deformations of embankments constructed on soft soils is essential for preloading or surcharge design. The predictions can be obtained by Bayesian back analysis methods progressively based on measurements so that practical decisions can be made after each monitoring round. However, the effect of creep is typically ignored in previous settlement predictions based on Bayesian back analysis to avoid the heavy computational costs. This study aims to fill this gap by combining the Bayesian back analysis with a decoupled consolidation constitutive model, which accounts for creep to perform long-term settlement predictions of the trial embankment with prefabricated vertical drains (PVDs) constructed in Ballina, Australia. The effect of creep on settlement predictions is illustrated by the comparisons of the cases with and without considering creep. The results show that good settlement predictions could be obtained if creep is ignored and could be further improved if creep is incorporated when the monitoring settlement data is applied in the Bayesian back analysis. Ignoring creep could lead to an underestimation of the ultimate consolidation settlement. The swelling index and the compression index need to be adjusted to larger values to match the measurements if creep is ignored. Four updating schemes (using surface settlement data only, using settlement data at all monitoring depths, using pore water pressure data only, and using both settlement and pore water pressure data) are applied to study the effects of monitoring data on the accuracy of settlement prediction. The results show that the variability introduced by the noisy pore water pressure data result in fluctuating settlement predictions. Incorporating both settlement and pore water pressure observations into the Bayesian updating process reduces the variability in the updated soil parameters.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Linkage Projects funding scheme (Project G2000327), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project Nos. 41972280, 42272326), Chinese Government through the China Scholarship Council (201906370054), and the University of Newcastle through CSC top-up scholarship (3332480).
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Information
Published In
Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Volume 150 • Issue 5 • May 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 16, 2022
Accepted: Nov 28, 2023
Published online: Feb 24, 2024
Published in print: May 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Jul 24, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Bayesian analysis
- Continuum mechanics
- Creep
- Dynamics (solid mechanics)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering mechanics
- Failure analysis
- Geomechanics
- Geotechnical engineering
- Hydrologic data
- Hydrologic engineering
- Hydrology
- Materials characterization
- Materials engineering
- Pore pressure
- Pore water
- Pressure (type)
- Rheology
- Soil dynamics
- Soil mechanics
- Soil settlement
- Solid mechanics
- Statistical analysis (by type)
- Water (by type)
- Water and water resources
- Water management
- Water pressure
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