Characterization of the Inherent Resilience of Large Cities to Natural Hazards
Publication: Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 149, Issue 10
Abstract
In view that cities will continue to house the majority of the world’s population at an increasing rate in the face of climate change, this paper studies urban resilience by examining the response history of the mean-square displacement of the citizens of large cities prior to and upon historic natural hazards strike. The recorded mean-square displacements of large numbers of cellphone users from the cities of Houston, Miami, and Jacksonville when struck by hurricanes Harvey 2017, Irma 2017, and Dorian 2019 together with the recorded mean-square displacements of the citizens of Dallas and Houston when experiencing the 2021 North American winter storm suggest that large cities of average population density when struck by natural hazards are inherently resilient. The recorded mean-square displacements presented in this study also validate a mechanical model for cities, previously developed by the authors, that is rooted in Langevin dynamics and predicts that following a natural hazard, large cities revert immediately to their initial steady-state behavior and resume their normal, preevent activities. The inherent ability of large American cities to revert to their normal, preevent, steady-state response as evidenced in this study by the recorded mean-square displacement of their citizens needs to be further explored for other cities around the world with different resources, and socioeconomic structures.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work was funded by the SMU/Bush Institute postdoctoral program and by the SMU-Lyle interdisciplinary seed funding initiative with No. 20-43-0061-S320086. Data analysis was performed on the ManeFrame II (M2): high-performance computing (HPC) cluster supported by SMU Research and Data Science Services.
References
Amadeo, K. 2018. “Hurricane Harvey facts, damage and costs.” Accessed January 20, 2019. https://www.lamar.edu/_files/documents/resilience-recovery/grant/recovery-and-resiliency/hurric2.pdf.
Attard, P. 2012. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics and statistical mechanics: Foundations and applications. Oxford, UK: OUP Oxford.
Bettencourt, L., and G. West. 2010. “A unified theory of urban living.” Nature 467 (7318): 912–913. https://doi.org/10.1038/467912a.
Bettencourt, L. M. 2013. “The origins of scaling in cities.” Science 340 (6139): 1438–1441. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235823.
Bettencourt, L. M., and J. Kaur. 2011. “Evolution and structure of sustainability science.” PNAS 108 (49): 19540–19545. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1102712108.
Boussinesq, J. 1885. “Sur la resistance qu’oppose un fluide indefini en repos, sans pesanteur, au mouvement varie d’une sphere solide qu’il mouille sur toute sa surface, quand les vitesses restent bien continues et assez faibles pour que leurs carres et produits soient negligiables.” CR Acad. Sci. 100: 935–937.
Brockerhoff, M. 1998. “World urbanization prospects: The 1996 revision.” Popul. Dev. Rev. 24 (4): 883–885. https://doi.org/10.2307/2808041.
Bruneau, M., S. E. Chang, R. T. Eguchi, G. C. Lee, T. D. O’Rourke, A. M. Reinhorn, M. Shinozuka, K. Tierney, W. A. Wallace, and D. VonWinterfeldt. 2003. “A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities.” Earthquake Spectra 19 (4): 733–752. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1623497.
Cimellaro, G. P., A. M. Reinhorn, and M. Bruneau. 2010. “Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience.” Eng. Struct. 32 (11): 3639–3649. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2010.08.008.
Clough, R., and J. Penzien. 1970. Dynamics of structures. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Coffey, W., and Y. P. Kalmykov. 2012. The Langevin equation: With applications to stochastic problems in physics, chemistry and electrical engineering. Hackensack, NJ: World Scientific Publishing.
Cruz, S. S., J. P. T. Costa, S. Á. D. Sousa, and P. Pinho. 2013. “Urban resilience and spatial dynamics.” In Proc., Resilience Thinking in Urban Planning, 53–69. New York: Springer.
Da Silva, J., S. Kernaghan, and A. Luque. 2012. “A systems approach to meeting the challenges of urban climate change.” J. Urban Sustainable Dev. 4 (2): 125–145. https://doi.org/10.1080/19463138.2012.718279.
Ehlinger, S. 2017. “Hurricane Harvey leaves Texans without internet, phone service.” Accessed August. 28, 2017. https://www.mysanantonio.com/business/technology/article/Hurricane-Harvey-leaves-Texans-without-internet-12069233.php.
Einstein, A. 1905. “Über die von der molekularkinetischen theorie der wärme geforderte bewe gung von in ruhenden flüssigkeiten suspendierten teilchen.” Ann. Phys. 322: 549–560.
Gao, J., S. V. Buldyrev, H. E. Stanley, and S. Havlin. 2012. “Networks formed from interdepend dent networks.” Nature Phys. 8 (1): 40–48. https://doi.org/10.1038/nphys2180.
Gittes, F., B. Schnurr, P. Olmsted, F. C. MacKintosh, and C. F. Schmidt. 1997. “Microscopic viscoelasticity: Shear moduli of soft materials determined from thermal fluctuations.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 79 (17): 3286. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.79.3286.
Godschalk, D. R. 2003. “Urban hazard mitigation: Creating resilient cities.” Nat. Hazards Rev. 4 (3): 136–143. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2003)4:3(136).
Gray, L., and R. Graham. 1961. Radio transmitters. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Harris, C. M., and C. B. Crede. 1976. Shock and vibration handbook. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Holling, C. S. 1973. “Resilience and stability of ecological systems.” Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 4 (1): 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245.
Holling, C. S. 1996. “Engineering resilience versus ecological resilience.” Eng. Ecol. Constraints 31 (Apr): 32.
Huang, R., I. Chavez, K. M. Taute, B. Lukić, S. Jeney, M. G. Raizen, and E.-L. Florin. 2011. “Direct observation of the full transition from ballistic to diffusive Brownian motion in a liquid.” Nat. Phys. 7 (7): 576–580. https://doi.org/10.1038/nphys1953.
Huber, C. 2018. “World vision, 2017 Hurricane Irma: Facts, FAQs, and how to help.” Accessed September 8, 2017. https://www.worldvision.org/disaster-relief-news-stories/2017-hurricane-irma-facts.
Jabareen, Y. 2013. “Planning the resilient city: Concepts and strategies for coping with climate change and environmental risk.” Cities 31 (Apr): 220–229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2012.05.004.
Jannasch, A., M. Mahamdeh, and E. Schäffer. 2011. “Inertial effects of a small Brownian particle cause a colored power spectral density of thermal noise.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 107 (22): 228301. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.107.228301.
Landau, L. D., and E. M. Lifshitz. 1959. Fluid mechanics: Course of theoretical physics. Oxford, UK: Pergamon Press.
Landau, L. D., and E. M. Lifshitz. 1980. “Statistical physics.” In Vol. 5 of Course of theoretical physics. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier.
Langevin, P. 1908. “Sur la théorie du mouvement Brownian.” C. R. 146 (Mar): 530–533.
Lhomme, S., D. Serre, Y. Diab, and R. Laganier. 2013. “Urban technical networks resilience assessment.” Resilience Urban Risk Manage. 109–117.
Li, T., and M. G. Raizen. 2013. “Brownian motion at short time scales.” Ann. Phys. 525 (4): 281–295. https://doi.org/10.1002/andp.201200232.
Lighthill, M. J. 1958. An introduction to Fourier analysis and generalised functions. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Makris, N. 2017. “Basic response functions of simple inertoelastic and inertoviscous models.” J. Eng. Mech. 143 (11): 04017123. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EM.1943-7889.0001348.
Makris, N. 2018. “Time-response functions of mechanical networks with inerters and causality.” Meccanica 53 (9): 2237–2255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11012-018-0822-6.
Makris, N. 2020. “Viscous-viscoelastic correspondence principle for Brownian motion.” Phys. Rev. E 101 (5): 052139. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.101.052139.
Makris, N. 2021a. “Impulse response function for Brownian motion.” Soft Matter 17 (21): 5410–5426. https://doi.org/10.1039/D1SM00380A.
Makris, N. 2021b. “A rheological analog for Brownian motion with hydrodynamic memory.” Phys. Fluids 33 (7): 072014. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0059452.
Makris, N., G. Moghimi, E. Godat, and T. Vu. 2023. “Mechanical analogue for cities.” R. Soc. Open Sci. 10 (3): 220943. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.220943.
Mason, T. G. 2000. “Estimating the viscoelastic moduli of complex fluids using the generalized Stokes–Einstein equation.” Rheol. Acta 39 (4): 371–378. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003970000094.
Mason, T. G., K. Ganesan, J. H. van Zanten, D. Wirtz, and S. C. Kuo. 1997a. “Particle tracking microrheology of complex fluids.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 79 (17): 3282. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.79.3282.
Mason, T. G., H. Gang, and D. A. Weitz. 1997b. “Diffusing-wave-spectroscopy measurements of viscoelasticity of complex fluids.” JOSA A 14 (1): 139–149. https://doi.org/10.1364/JOSAA.14.000139.
Mason, T. G., and D. A. Weitz. 1995. “Optical measurements of frequency-dependent linear viscoelastic moduli of complex fluids.” Phys. Rev. Lett. 74 (7): 1250. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.74.1250.
Mazzei, P., and N. Bogel-Burroughs. 2019. “The New York Times.” Accessed September 6, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/04/us/hurricane-dorian-updates.html.
Meerow, S., J. P. Newell, and M. Stults. 2016. “Defining urban resilience: A review.” Landscape Urban Plann. 147 (Mar): 38–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.11.011.
National Weather Service. 2021. “North American winter storm in Dallas.” Accessed February 21, 2021. https://www.weather.gov/fwd/Feb-2021-WinterEvent.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2021. “North American winter storm in Dallas.” Accessed March 8, 2021. https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-had-its-coldest-february-in-more-than-30-years.
Oppenheim, A. V., and R. W. Schafer. 1975. Digital signal processing. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Ornstein, L. S. 1917. “On the Brownian motion.” In Vol. 21 of Proc., Huygens Institute-Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, 96–108. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Huygens Institute for the History of the Netherlands.
Reid, J. G. 1983. Linear system fundamentals: Continuous and discrete, classic and modern. New York: McGraw-Hill Science, Engineering & Mathematics.
Schnurr, B., F. Gittes, F. MacKintosh, and C. Schmidt. 1997. “Determining microscopic viscoelasticity in flexible and semiflexible polymer networks from thermal fluctuations.” Macromolecules 30 (25): 7781–7792. https://doi.org/10.1021/ma970555n.
Silver, H. W. 2011. The ARRL handbook: For radio communications. Newington, CT: Amer Radio Relay League.
Smith, A. B., and R. W. Katz. 2013. “US billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: Data sources, trends, accuracy and biases.” Nat. Hazards 67 (2): 387–410. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0566-5.
Stepzinski, T. 2017. “The Florida Times-Union.” Accessed September 18, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20180125080131/http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/clay/2017-09-18/storm-surge-damage-hurricane-irma-forces-orange-park-condo-owners-homes.
Tropical Winds Newsletter. 2017. “Tropical Winds Newsletter (report).” National Weather Service. Accessed September 20, 2017. https://www.weather.gov/.
Uhlenbeck, G. E., and L. S. Ornstein. 1930. “On the theory of the Brownian motion.” Phys. Rev. 36 (5): 823. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRev.36.823.
Vu, T. M., and A. K. Mishra. 2019. “Nonstationary frequency analysis of the recent extreme precipitation events in the United States.” J. Hydrol. 575 (Aug): 999–1010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.090.
Wang, M. C., and G. E. Uhlenbeck. 1945. “On the theory of the Brownian motion II.” Rev. Mod. Phys. 17 (2–3): 323. https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.17.323.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Engineering Mechanics
Volume 149 • Issue 10 • October 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 2, 2022
Accepted: May 22, 2023
Published online: Jul 28, 2023
Published in print: Oct 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Dec 28, 2023
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.