Research Article
Feb 1977
Game Theory Approach to Design Under Uncertainty
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of the Environmental Engineering Division
Volume 103, Issue 1
Abstract
Using some basic concepts from game theory, a framework for the analysis of pollution control investments under uncertainty is developed. Casting the facility designer and nature as the participants in a two-person zero-sum game, and formulating the cost penalties for making incorrect projections as the pay-off matrix, a rational method for determination of the optimal design specification for plant expansions is derived. The relationship between projection uncertainty, interest rates, and scale economies receives particular attention. The method is applied to some recent sewage treatment plant projects, with the results compared to the more traditional design specifications contained in the preliminary design reports. Under the prevailing interest rate conditions, overdesign in the face of flow uncertainty is shown to carry higher economic penalties than underdesign.
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Published In
Journal of the Environmental Engineering Division
Volume 103 • Issue 1 • February 1977
Pages: 99 - 111
Copyright
© 1977 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Feb 1977
Published online: Feb 11, 2021
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Authors
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Peter M. Meier, AM.ASCE
Manager; Regional Energy Studies Program, Brookhaven Nat. Lab., Upton, N.Y.
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.