Research Article
Dec 1976
Gates Bidding Model—A Monte Carlo Experiment
Publication: Journal of the Construction Division
Volume 102, Issue 4
Abstract
The probability of winning in a closed competitive bidding situation has been vigorously disputed for ten years. In particular, the basic probability model of simultaneously beating more than one competitor, when the probability of beating each competitor alone is known, is in contention. Two fundamental probability models, Friedman's and Gate's, have been proposed and yield conflicting results. The supporters of one are generally the detractors of the other. A manual Monte Carlo Simulation was used to test both models. In all, six different experiments were run three times and 48 test results were compared. Friedman's model failed while Gates' model passed every test. These results challenge the credibility of other bidding models that are widely published in reference books; usually by the authors of the model.
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Published In
Journal of the Construction Division
Volume 102 • Issue 4 • December 1976
Pages: 669 - 680
Copyright
© 1976 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Dec 1976
Published online: Feb 11, 2021
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Authors
Affiliations
Marvin Gates, M.ASCE
Pres., Construction Estimating, Inc., West Hartford, Conn.; and Lect., Worcester Polytechnic Inst., Worcester, Mass.
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.