Research Article
Mar 1974
Probabilistic Estimating
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of the Construction Division
Volume 100, Issue 1
Abstract
Using the mathematics of random variables, a procedure is developed for calculating the variance of the total estimate of project cost. Input consists of three-value estimates of the individual budget work items. Correlation among work items is shown to produce a significant part of total variance. Although the assumed probability function of the input affects the transformation of the three-value estimates into means and variances, the form of the output is approximately normal. Contingency can be related to the standard deviation of the estimate, but it is shown that the results can be inconsistent with reality. A simplified technique for these calculations is suggested.
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Information
Published In
Journal of the Construction Division
Volume 100 • Issue 1 • March 1974
Pages: 65 - 77
Copyright
© 1974 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Mar 1974
Published online: Feb 11, 2021
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Authors
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James E. Spooner, M.ASCE
Asst. Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Missouri-Rolla, Rolla, M.O.
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.