Time-Variant System Reliability Analysis of Concrete Sewer Pipes under Corrosion Considering Multiple Failure Modes
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 9, Issue 1
Abstract
This paper presents a framework for time-variant system reliability analysis of concrete sewer pipes considering multiple modes of failure. Sewer pipelines are among critical infrastructure systems, designed to collect and transport wastewater away from communities. Such pipes are typically subjected to corrosion and subsequent damage because of continuous contact with corrosive materials. Corrosion is here modeled in terms of the reduction in the pipe wall thickness. In the proposed framework, prevailing uncertainties in the characteristics of wastewater fluid, geometric properties of fluid cross section, and corrosion-related parameters of concrete are quantified as random variables. Next, various modes of failure under bending, shear, excessive cracking, and cover loss are formulated as multiple limit-state functions. This leads to a general system reliability problem defined as a series system of parallel subsystems, i.e., cut sets. Further, by introducing the corrosion model into the limit-state functions, a time-variant system reliability problem is established in which the integration domain is conditioned to the corrosion level at each point in time. By integrating over the conditional probabilities through a rejection sampling method, the failure probability is computed given the corrosion level over the desired time span. The results show that the failure probability increases sharply with time and corrosion level. For instance, the failure probability exceeds 80% for pipes over 50 years and at corrosion levels of over 40%. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis shows that the acid-consumption capacity of the pipe material, the pH-related factor, and the proportion of dissolved highly influence the failure probability. The maximum effects of these parameters occur within 0%–10% corrosion. The results of this study can be used to evaluate the failure probability of sewer pipes given their age and current corrosion level.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the authors upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The first author gratefully acknowledges Iran’s National Elites Foundation for a postdoctoral fellowship No. 7000/10139 at Sharif University of Technology. The second author also appreciatively thanks Sharif University of Technology for Grant No. QA990102. The third author appreciates the National Natural Science Foundation of China for Grant No. 51908324. The fourth author also thanks the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality for Grant No. 18DZ1205902.
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Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 9 • Issue 1 • March 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 28, 2022
Accepted: Nov 17, 2022
Published online: Jan 12, 2023
Published in print: Mar 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Jun 12, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Concrete pipes
- Corrosion
- Deterioration
- Engineering fundamentals
- Failure analysis
- Infrastructure
- Materials characterization
- Materials engineering
- Mathematics
- Pipe failures
- Pipe materials
- Pipeline management
- Pipeline systems
- Pipes
- Probability
- System analysis
- System reliability
- Systems engineering
- Systems management
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