Performance-Based Characterization and Quantification of Uncertainty in Damage Plasticity Model for Seismic Fragility Assessment of Concrete Structures

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment requires explicit consideration and quantification of all sources of uncertainty. Although uncertainties in earthquakes and basic material properties, such as nominal concrete compressive strength, strain at maximum stress, and modulus of elasticity of concrete, have been considered in some studies, uncertainties in parameters used to model the nonlinear behavior of concrete are often not considered. Recent recommendations in design standards have incorporated performance-based limit states in the design and risk assessment of nuclear power plants. These recommendations have implicitly mandated that the uncertainty in the nonlinear behavior of concrete needs to be characterized and quantified in accordance with different performance limit states. This study focused on nonlinear model parameters in the concrete damage plasticity model (CDPM) and their characterization in terms of material strength parameters. Furthermore, a performance-based characterization and quantification of uncertainties in nonlinear model parameters was also conducted. Data from existing experimental studies were used to study the uncertainties in CDPM and were used as a basis for the proposed quantification.