Impact of Ergodic and Nonergodic Ground Motion Estimation on the Earthquake Resilience of Shared Distributed Energy Resource Systems
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 10, Issue 1
Abstract
Distributed energy resource systems (DERs), such as rooftop solar panels, are gaining traction in the energy sector to improve infrastructure resilience to earthquakes by facilitating electricity sharing in seismic regions (e.g., California). The seismic risk assessment of DERs requires estimating ground motion intensity measures (IMs) using ground motion models (GMMs). In this context, a few existing efforts have used ergodic GMMs, which assume that the distribution of IMs over time (across multiple events) at a single site is the same as that of ground motion IMs over space (across multiple sites). However, with the advent of large ground motion databases, it has become evident that ground motions are influenced by location-specific repeatable effects, motivating a gradual transition into nonergodic approaches that can capture these effects. However, the impact of these approaches (i.e., ergodic and nonergodic) on the seismic risk assessment of DERs has not been assessed. This study considered areas with contrasting spatial extents to assess the impact of nonergodic approaches in the seismic risk assessments of DERs. Specifically, we investigated the risk of power outages in residential communities that have access to DERs and are exposed to a significant seismic hazard. The results indicate significant differences in the estimated risk (as much as 0.2 on a scale of 0–1) between ergodic and nonergodic estimates at locations where large intensity measures and significant repeatable effects are observed. Furthermore, the nonergodic approach is better equipped to capture the spatial variation of risk estimates across a large spatial extent, but more data are required to fully realize the potential of nonergodic approaches in community-scale regions.
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Data Availability Statement
The Californian ground-motion database, the solar irradiance data, and the code for parameter estimation in the ground motion models are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by a generous gift from Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) and complemented by support from the Georgia Institute of Technology (Award DE00000701). We also thank Dr. Norman Abrahamson for the valuable discussions on nonergodic ground motion models.
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ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 10 • Issue 1 • March 2024
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© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 21, 2023
Accepted: Sep 14, 2023
Published online: Dec 20, 2023
Published in print: Mar 1, 2024
Discussion open until: May 20, 2024
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