Estimation of Economic Impacts of Climate-Driven Hazards Using Stochastic Process Model
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 10, Issue 1
Abstract
Projections using global climate models indicate that climate change will influence the patterns of natural hazards, such as thunderstorms, atmospheric river landfalls, extreme droughts, and ocean waves. The frequency and intensity of these hazards are expected to increase gradually in proportion to global temperature. The design principles based on the philosophy of cost optimization need to be updated to accommodate the nonstationarity of the load processes, primarily because the prevalent cost analysis methods in the literature predominantly assume that the loads are stationary. This study provides a novel methodology for calculating the first two moments and the distribution of the economic losses for nonstationary loading processes. Here, the load processes are modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with time-dependent rates. The presented methodology is applied to estimate the losses due to tornadoes in Ontario, Canada and heat waves in US cities. It was found that if adaptive measures are applied to increase the capacity of structures, the losses due to these climate-driven hazards can be significantly reduced. For example, if mitigation strategies are employed in Ontario, such that the effect of tornadoes with wind speeds lower than becomes negligible, then the tornado losses until 2100 can be reduced by 66%.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support received from the National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC).
References
Abaurrea, J., J. Asín, and A. Cebrián. 2015. “Modeling and projecting the occurrence of bivariate extreme heat events using a non-homogeneous common Poisson shock process.” Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 29 (1): 309–322. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0953-9.
Achcar, J. A., E. A. Coelho-Barros, and R. M. de Souza. 2016. “Use of non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) in presence of change-points to analyze drought periods: A case study in Brazil.” Environ. Ecol. Stat. 23 (3): 405–419. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-016-0345-z.
Achcar, J. A., and R. P. de Oliveira. 2022. “Climate change: Use of non-homogeneous Poisson processes for climate data in presence of a change-point.” Environ. Model. Assess. 27 (2): 385–398. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-021-09797-z.
Alhamid, A. K., M. Akiyama, H. Ishibashi, K. Aoki, S. Koshimura, and D. M. Frangopol. 2022. “Framework for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering the effects of sea-level rise due to climate change.” Struct. Saf. 94 (Jan): 102152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2021.102152.
Alvehag, K., and L. Soder. 2010. “A reliability model for distribution systems incorporating seasonal variations in severe weather.” IEEE Trans. Power Delivery 26 (2): 910–919. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRD.2010.2090363.
Brooks, H. E. 2013. “Severe thunderstorms and climate change.” Atmos. Res. 123 (Apr): 129–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002.
Bush, E., and D. Lemmen. 2019. Canada’s changing climate report. Ottawa, ON, Canada: Government of Canada.
Caires, S., V. R. Swail, and X. L. Wang. 2006. “Projection and analysis of extreme wave climate.” J. Clim. 19 (21): 5581–5605. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3918.1.
Cannon, A., D. Jeong, X. Zhang, and F. Zwiers. 2020. Resilient buildings and core public infrastructure: An assessment of the impact of climate change on climatic design data in Canada. Gatineau, QC: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
Cao, Z., and H. Cai. 2011. “Detection of tornado frequency trend over Ontario, Canada.” Open Atmos. Sci. J. 5 (1): 27–31. https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282301105010027.
ECC (Environment and Climate change, Canada). 2015. “Canadian National Tornado Database.” Accessed August 23, 2021. https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f314a39f-009d-430b-97b9-d6e0cae22340.
Ellahi, A., I. M. Almanjahie, T. Hussain, M. Z. Hashmi, S. Faisal, and I. Hussain. 2020. “Analysis of agricultural and hydrological drought periods by using non-homogeneous Poisson models: Linear intensity function.” J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. 198 (Feb): 105190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2020.105190.
Fadel, A. W., G. F. Marques, J. A. Goldenfum, J. Medellín-Azuara, and A. Tilmant. 2018. “Full flood cost: Insights from a risk analysis perspective.” J. Environ. Eng. 144 (9): 04018071. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EE.1943-7870.0001414.
Frangopol, D. M., and J. S. Kong. 2001. “Expected maintenance cost of deteriorating civil infrastructures.” In Life-cycle cost analysis and design of civil infrastructure systems, 22–47. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Fujita, T. T. 1971. Proposed characterization of tornadoes and hurricanes by area and intensity. Rep. No. NASA-CR-125545. Chicago, IL: Univ. of Chicago.
Gardoni, P., and C. Murphy. 2021. “Risks and compromises: Principled compromises in managing societal risks of extreme events.” In Engineering for extremes: Decision-making in an uncertain world, 31–44. Cham, Switzerland: Springer.
Gardoni, P., C. Murphy, and A. Rowell. 2016. Risk analysis of natural hazards: Interdisciplinary challenges and integrated solutions. Cham, Switzerland: Springer.
Habeeb, D., J. Vargo, and B. Stone. 2015. “Rising heat wave trends in large US cities.” Nat. Hazards 76 (3): 1651–1665. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1563-z.
Henderson, C., T. Huff, and G. Bouton. 2021. “Structural observations and tornado damage mitigation concepts: March 2020 Tennessee tornadoes.” Pract. Period. Struct. Des. Constr. 26 (2): 05021001. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)SC.1943-5576.0000571.
Heralova, R. S. 2014. “Life cycle cost optimization within decision making on alternative designs of public buildings.” Procedia Eng. 85 (Jan): 454–463. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2014.10.572.
Hopkin, D., I. Fu, and R. Van Coile. 2021. “Adequate fire safety for structural steel elements based upon life-time cost optimization.” Fire Saf. J. 120 (Mar): 103095. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2020.103095.
Hopkin, D., M. Spearpoint, M. Arnott, and R. Van Coile. 2019. “Cost-benefit analysis of residential sprinklers—Application of a judgement value method.” Fire Saf. J. 106 (Jun): 61–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2019.04.003.
Hundecha, Y., A. St-Hilaire, T. Ouarda, S. El Adlouni, and P. Gachon. 2008. “A nonstationary extreme value analysis for the assessment of changes in extreme annual wind speed over the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada.” J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 47 (11): 2745–2759. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAMC1665.1.
Instanes, A. 2006. “Impacts of a changing climate on infrastructure: Buildings, support systems, and industrial facilities.” In Proc., 2006 IEEE EIC Climate Change Conf., 1–4. New York: IEEE.
Jia, G., and P. Gardoni. 2019. “Stochastic life-cycle analysis: Renewal-theory life-cycle analysis with state-dependent deterioration stochastic models.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 15 (8): 1001–1014. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2019.1590424.
Kang, Y.-J. 2000. Minimum life-cycle cost structural design against natural hazards. Urbana, IL: Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
McBean, G. 2005. “Risk mitigation strategies for tornadoes in the context of climate change and development.” In Mitigation of natural hazards and disasters: International perspectives, 25–34. Dordrecht: Springer.
Moritz, M. A., M.-A. Parisien, E. Batllori, M. A. Krawchuk, J. Van Dorn, D. J. Ganz, and K. Hayhoe. 2012. “Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity.” Ecosphere 3 (6): 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00345.1.
Ngailo, T., N. Shaban, J. Reuder, E. Rutalebwa, and I. Mugume. 2016. “Non homogeneous Poisson process modelling of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Tanzania.” Int. J. Sci. Res. 5 (10): 1858–1868. https://doi.org/10.21275/ART20162322.
Panday, M., and N. Manzana. 2019. “An investigation of non-stationary nature of ice accretion data.” In Proc., 18th Int. Workshop on Atmospheric Icing of Structures, Reykjavik, Iceland, June 23-28, 2019. Reykjavik, Iceland: Landsnet.
Pandey, M. D., and Z. Lounis. 2023. “Stochastic modelling of non-stationary environmental loads for reliability analysis under the changing climate.” Struct. Saf. 103 (Jul): 102348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102348.
Pandey, M. D., and J. A. van der Weide. 2018. “Probability distribution of the seismic damage cost over the life cycle of structures.” Struct. Saf. 72 (May): 74–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2017.12.007.
Pandey, M. D., and J. Van Der Weide. 2017. “Stochastic renewal process models for estimation of damage cost over the life-cycle of a structure.” Struct. Saf. 67 (Jul): 27–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2017.03.002.
Peck, A., P. Prodanovic, and S. P. Simonovic. 2012. “Rainfall intensity duration frequency curves under climate change: City of London, Ontario, Canada.” Can. Water Resour. J. 37 (3): 177–189. https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj2011-935.
Rackwitz, R. 2000. “Optimization—The basis of code-making and reliability verification.” Struct. Saf. 22 (1): 27–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-4730(99)00037-5.
Saini, A., and I. Tien. 2017. “Impacts of climate change on the assessment of long-term structural reliability.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 3 (3): 04017003. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000906.
Sarma, K. C., and H. Adeli. 2002. “Life-cycle cost optimization of steel structures.” Int. J. Numer. Methods Eng. 55 (12): 1451–1462. https://doi.org/10.1002/nme.549.
Serfozo, R. 2009. Basics of applied stochastic processes. Berlin: Springer.
Sills, D. 2015. “Canadian tornado fact sheet.” Accessed August 23, 2021. https://donnees.ec.gc.ca/data/weather/products/canadian-national-tornado-database-verified-events-1980-2009-public/CanadianTornadoFactSheet.pdf.
Sirangelo, B., E. Ferrari, and D. De Luca. 2011. “Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls through non-homogeneous Poissonian processes.” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 11 (6): 1657–1668. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1657-2011.
Smith, T. L., M. Perotin, and E. Walsh. 2012. “Enhancing tornado performance of critical facilities: Findings and recommendations of FEMA’s mitigation assessment team.” In Proc., Structures Congress 2012, 977–988. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Stewart, M. G. 2023. “Climate adaptation engineering: An optimist’s view.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 9 (1): 02522002. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-990.
Stewart, M. G., and X. Deng. 2015. “Climate impact risks and climate adaptation engineering for built infrastructure.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 1 (1): 04014001. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000809.
Stewart, M. G., and D. V. Rosowsky. 2021. “Extreme events for infrastructure: Uncertainty and risk.” In Engineering for extremes: Decision-making in an uncertain world, 3–27. Cham, Switzerland: Springer.
Stewart, M. G., and D. V. Rosowsky. 2022. Engineering for extremes. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing.
Sugahara, S., R. P. Da Rocha, and R. Silveira. 2009. “Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil.” Int. J. Climatol. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 29 (9): 1339–1349. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1760.
Sutter, D., D. DeSilva, and J. Kruse. 2009. “An economic analysis of wind resistant construction.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 97 (3–4): 113–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2009.01.002.
Van Coile, R., R. Caspeele, and L. Taerwe. 2014. “Lifetime cost optimization for the structural fire resistance of concrete slabs.” Fire Technol. 50 (5): 1201–1227. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-013-0350-9.
van Noortwijk, J. M., and J. A. van der Weide. 2008. “Applications to continuous-time processes of computational techniques for discrete-time renewal processes.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 93 (12): 1853–1860. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2008.03.023.
Wen, Y. 2001a. “Minimum lifecycle cost design under multiple hazards.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 73 (3): 223–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(01)00047-3.
Wen, Y.-K. 2001b. “Reliability and performance-based design.” Struct. Saf. 23 (4): 407–428. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-4730(02)00011-5.
Yilmaz, A., I. Hossain, and B. Perera. 2014. “Effect of climate change and variability on extreme rainfall intensity–frequency–duration relationships: A case study of Melbourne.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18 (10): 4065–4076. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4065-2014.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 26, 2023
Accepted: Oct 10, 2023
Published online: Dec 13, 2023
Published in print: Mar 1, 2024
Discussion open until: May 13, 2024
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.