Seaport Hazardous Cargo Loading and Unloading Risk Assessment Using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets and Bayesian Networks
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 10, Issue 1
Abstract
Manifold calamitous consequences of seaport hazardous cargo accidents have raised grave trepidation over the safe management of hazardous cargo. Fewer investigations have aimed at the multifaceted risk associated with intricate seaport hazardous cargo loading and unloading operations. To that end, this study analyzes the multifaceted risks associated with seaport hazardous cargo loading and unloading operations. Bayesian network (BN) is employed and amalgamated with interval type-2 fuzzy sets to account for intricacies and uncertainties concomitant to the causation factors. Power average operator on aggregation of domain expert opinions, and experts scores in quantifying conditional probability tables are employed to further augment the viability and diagnosis accuracy of the analysis. The results reveal policy and regulations failures, errors and violations, and communications issues as the prominent accident causation factors. To identify the critical accident causation factors, a sensitivity analysis was performed. Based on these insights, the study proposes practical applications in terms of development and abidance of rules, resource upkeeping, and critical operations to mitigate the risk of seaport hazardous cargo loading and unloading operations.
Practical Applications
The study’s outcomes propose practical measures to mitigate risks effectively. Adhering to safety regulations is paramount, especially when handling petrochemicals and ammonium nitrate. Staff must diligently follow rules to prevent negligence or authority misuse. Monitoring personnel qualifications and experienced supervisors play a vital role in promptly identifying threats. Consistent checks and maintenance of technology, infrastructure, and equipment are indispensable. Ship positioning entails assessing water depth and vessel draught. Secure mooring and monitoring movements due to tides, currents, and operations are vital. Seamless coordination between ship and terminal via designated communication systems is central, including comprehension of emergency signals. Cargo information—grade, quantity, contaminants, and local regulations—is crucial. Uncontaminated cargo holds are vital. Likewise, creating a pre-arrival cargo plan, approved by the terminal and shared with ship and terminal teams, is highly critical. Deviations require authorization, with copies sent to the port agency. The plan must detail loader capabilities and rates. Ballast efficacy, frozen ballast readiness, and equipment accuracy need rigorous checks. Adjustments are needed if the ship’s cargo acceptance rate differs from the terminal’s loading capability.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, and code generated or used during the study appear in the published article.
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for research on the key technology of the high-tech ocean passenger ship construction logistics collection system (MC-202009-Z03).
References
Abdul Rahman, N. S. F., I. A. Othman, A. Z. Sanusi, A. M. Arof, and A. Ismail. 2019. “Evaluation of delay factors on dry bulk cargo operation in Malaysia: A case study of kemaman port.” Asian J. Ship. Logist. 35 (3): 127–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajsl.2019.09.001.
Alyami, H., P. T.-W. Lee, Z. Yang, R. Riahi, S. Bonsall, and J. Wang. 2014. “An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation.” Marit. Policy Manage. 41 (7): 634–650. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2014.960498.
Ambrosino, D., M. Paolucci, and A. Sciomachen. 2017. “Computational evaluation of a MIP model for multi-port stowage planning problems.” Soft Comput. 21 (7): 1753–1763. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-015-1879-y.
Ambrosino, D., and A. Sciomachen. 2015. “Using a bin packing approach for stowing hazardous containers into containerships.” In Optimized packings with applications, edited by G. Fasano and J. D. Pintér, 1–18. Cham, Switzerland: Springer.
Ambrosino, D., and A. Sciomachen. 2021. “A shipping line stowage-planning procedure in the presence of hazardous containers.” Marit. Econ. Logist. 23 (1): 49–70. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-018-0107-y.
Bobbio, A., L. Portinale, M. Minichino, and E. Ciancamerla. 2001. “Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 71 (3): 249–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(00)00077-6.
Burgherr, P. 2007. “In-depth analysis of accidental oil spills from tankers in the context of global spill trends from all sources.” J. Hazard. Mater. 140 (1): 245–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2006.07.030.
Carlo, H. J., I. F. A. Vis, and K. J. Roodbergen. 2014. “Storage yard operations in container terminals: Literature overview, trends, and research directions.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 235 (2): 412–430. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2013.10.054.
Chen, S.-M., and L.-W. Lee. 2010. “Fuzzy multiple attributes group decision-making based on the interval type-2 TOPSIS method.” Expert Syst. Appl. 37 (4): 2790–2798. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2009.09.012.
Demirel, H., E. Akyuz, E. Celik, and F. Alarcin. 2019. “An interval type-2 fuzzy QUALIFLEX approach to measure performance effectiveness of ballast water treatment (BWT) system on-board ship.” Ships Offshore Struct. 14 (7): 675–683. https://doi.org/10.1080/17445302.2018.1551851.
Ellis, J. 2010. “Undeclared dangerous goods–Risk implications for maritime transport.” WMU J. Marit. Aff. 9 (1): 5–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03195163.
Ellis, J. 2011. “Analysis of accidents and incidents occurring during transport of packaged dangerous goods by sea.” Saf. Sci. 49 (8–9): 1231–1237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2011.04.004.
Fabiano, B., F. Currò, A. P. Reverberi, and R. Pastorino. 2010. “Port safety and the container revolution: A statistical study on human factor and occupational accidents over the long period.” Saf. Sci. 48 (8): 980–990. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2009.08.007.
Frittelli, J. 2008. “Port and maritime security: Background and issues for congress.” Port Marit. Secur. 11 (Mar): 1–27.
Fu, G., J. Wang, and M. Yan. 2016. “Anatomy of Tianjin Port fire and explosion: Process and causes.” Process Saf. Prog. 35 (3): 216–220. https://doi.org/10.1002/prs.11837.
Gusik, V., M. Klumpp, and C. Westphal. 2012. International comparison of dangerous goods transport and training schemes: FOM. Essen, Germany: FOM Hochschule.
Häkkinen, J., and A. Posti. 2015. “Port accidents involving hazardous substances based on FACTS database analysis.” In Proc., Paper Presented at the Proc., 38th AMOP Technical Seminar on Environmental Contamination and Response, 372–384. Ottawa: Environment Canada.
Helle, I., T. Lecklin, A. Jolma, and S. Kuikka. 2011. “Modeling the effectiveness of oil combating from an ecological perspective—A Bayesian network for the Gulf of Finland: The Baltic Sea.” J. Hazard. Mater. 185 (1): 182–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2010.09.017.
Hong, Y., H. J. Pasman, N. Quddus, and M. S. Mannan. 2020. “Supporting risk management decision making by converting linguistic graded qualitative risk matrices through interval type-2 fuzzy sets.” Process Saf. Environ. Prot. 134 (Feb): 308–322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2019.12.001.
Imai, A., E. Nishimura, and S. Papadimitriou. 2013. “Marine container terminal configurations for efficient handling of mega-containerships.” Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev. 49 (1): 141–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2012.07.006.
Kadir, A., Z. Mohammad, N. Othman, A. Amrin, M. N. Muhtazaruddin, S. H. Abu-Bakar, and F. Muhammad-Sukki. 2020. “Risk management framework for handling and storage of cargo at major ports in Malaysia towards port sustainability.” Sustainability 12 (2): 516. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12020516.
Kahraman, C., B. Öztayşi, İ. Uçal Sarı, and E. Turanoğlu. 2014. “Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with interval type-2 fuzzy sets.” Knowl.-Based Syst. 59 (Mar): 48–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2014.02.001.
Kelman, J. 2008. “Hazards in the maritime transport of bulk materials and containerized products-J Kelman assesses the main hazards involved in the marine transport industry and reviews some of the more recent incidents.” Loss Prev. Bull. 203 (Mar): 28.
Khakzad, N., F. Khan, and P. Amyotte. 2011. “Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 96 (8): 925–932. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2011.03.012.
Khan, R. U., J. Yin, and F. S. Mustafa. 2021a. “Accident and pollution risk assessment for hazardous cargo in a port environment.” PLoS One 16 (6): e0252732. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252732.
Khan, R. U., J. Yin, F. S. Mustafa, and A. O. Ahmad Farea. 2021b. “A data centered human factor analysis approach for hazardous cargo accidents in a port environment.” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind. 75 (Feb): 104711. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2021.104711.
Khan, R. U., J. Yin, F. S. Mustafa, and N. Anning. 2021c. “Risk assessment for berthing of hazardous cargo vessels using Bayesian networks.” Ocean Coastal Manage. 210 (Sep): 105673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105673.
Khan, R. U., J. Yin, F. S. Mustafa, and H. Liu. 2020. “Risk assessment and decision support for sustainable traffic safety in Hong Kong waters.” IEEE Access 8 (Apr): 72893–72909. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2988201.
Khan, R. U., J. Yin, F. S. Mustafa, and W. Shi. 2023. “Factor assessment of hazardous cargo ship berthing accidents using an ordered logit regression model.” Ocean Eng. 284 (Sep): 115211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.115211.
Khan, R. U., J. Yin, F. S. Mustafa, and S. Wang. 2022. “Analyzing human factor involvement in sustainable hazardous cargo port operations.” Ocean Eng. 250 (Apr): 111028. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.111028.
Lam, J. S. L., and J. A. Lassa. 2017. “Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes.” Marit. Policy Manage. 44 (1): 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2016.1245877.
Lavasani, S. M. M., J. Wang, Z. Yang, and J. Finlay. 2012. “Application of MADM in a fuzzy environment for selecting the best barrier for offshore wells.” Expert Syst. Appl. 39 (3): 2466–2478. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2011.08.099.
Li, H. 2017. “Research on safety monitoring system of workers in dangerous operation area of port.” In Proc., Paper Presented at the 2017 4th Int. Conf. on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS). New York: IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2017.8047796.
Liu, Z., and Y. Liu. 2019. “A Bayesian network based method for reliability analysis of subsea blowout preventer control system.” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind. 59 (May): 44–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2019.03.004.
Lu, X., C. Ruan, R. Li, T. Xie, and H. Xu. 2019. “Comparative study on safe storage of dangerous goods containers in port areas.” In Proc., Paper Presented at the 2019 5th Int. Conf. on Transportation Information and Safety. New York: IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTIS.2019.8883717.
Mendel, J. M., M. R. Rajati, and P. Sussner. 2016. “On clarifying some definitions and notations used for type-2 fuzzy sets as well as some recommended changes.” Inf. Sci. 340 (May): 337–345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2016.01.015.
Mokhtari, K., J. Ren, C. Roberts, and J. Wang. 2011. “Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals.” J. Hazard. Mater. 192 (2): 465–475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2011.05.035.
Monaco, M. F., M. Sammarra, and G. Sorrentino. 2014. “The terminal-oriented ship stowage planning problem.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 239 (1): 256–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.05.030.
Montwiłł, A. 2014. “The role of seaports as logistics centers in the modelling of the sustainable system for distribution of goods in urban areas.” Procedia-Soc. Behav. Sci. 151 (Oct): 257–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.10.024.
Oniśko, A., M. J. Druzdzel, and H. Wasyluk. 2001. “Learning Bayesian network parameters from small data sets: Application of Noisy-OR gates.” Int. J. Approximate Reasoning 27 (2): 165–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0888-613X(01)00039-1.
Parreño, F., D. Pacino, and R. Alvarez-Valdes. 2016. “A GRASP algorithm for the container stowage slot planning problem.” Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev. 94 (Oct): 141–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2016.07.011.
Petkov, G., V. Todorov, T. Takov, V. Petrov, K. Stoychev, V. Vladimirov, and I. Chukov. 2004. “Safety investigation of team performance in accidents.” J. Hazard. Mater. 111 (1): 97–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2004.02.013.
Popek, M. 2019. “Factors influencing on the environment during hazardous goods transportation by the sea.” IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 214 (1): 012052. doi:10.1088/1755-1315/214/1/012052.
Qin, J., X. Liu, and W. Pedrycz. 2017. “An extended TODIM multi-criteria group decision making method for green supplier selection in interval type-2 fuzzy environment.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 258 (2): 626–638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.09.059.
Ramzali, N., M. R. M. Lavasani, and J. Ghodousi. 2015. “Safety barriers analysis of offshore drilling system by employing fuzzy event tree analysis.” Saf. Sci. 78 (Oct): 49–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2015.04.004.
Ruan, J. 2016. Discussion on shipping dangerous goods accidents rescue of China. Malmö, Sweden: World Maritime Univ.
Sakar, C., M. Buber, B. Koseoglu, and A. C. Toz. 2022. “Risk analysis for confined space accidents onboard ship using fuzzy bow-tie methodology.” Ocean Eng. 263 (Nov): 112386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.112386.
Sarkar, B. D., and R. Shankar. 2021. “Understanding the barriers of port logistics for effective operation in the Industry 4.0 era: Data-driven decision making.” Int. J. Inf. Manage. Data Insights 1 (2): 100031. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjimei.2021.100031.
Saruchera, F. 2020. “Determinants of effective high-risk cargo logistics at sea ports: A case study.” J. Trans. Supply Chain Manage. 14 (1): 1–13. doi:10.4102/jtscm.v14i0.488.
Son, M. J., J. H. Park, and K. H. Ko. 2019. “Some hesitant fuzzy hamacher power-aggregation operators for multiple-attribute decision-making.” Mathematics 7 (7): 594. https://doi.org/10.3390/math7070594.
Tam, J. H. 2022. “Overview of performing shore-to-ship and ship-to-ship compatibility studies for LNG bunker vessels.” J. Mar. Eng. Technol. 21 (5): 257–270. https://doi.org/10.1080/20464177.2020.1827489.
Van Zwijnsvoorde, T., M. Vantorre, K. Eloot, and S. Ides. 2019. “Safety of container ship (un)loading operations in the Port of Antwerp.” Marit. Bus. Rev. 4 (1): 106–127. https://doi.org/10.1108/MABR-09-2018-0033.
Veritas, D. N. J. 2010. Risk assessment of pipeline protection. DNV-RP-F107. Oslo, Norway: Det Norske Veritas.
Wang, C. H., M. E. Wu, and C. M. Chen. 2015. “Inspection risk and delay for screening cargo containers at security checkpoints.” In Proc., Paper presented at the 2015 Int. Conf. on Intelligent Information Hiding and Multimedia Signal Processing. New York: IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/IIH-MSP.2015.29.
Watai, R. A., F. Ruggeri, E. A. Tannuri, N. F. Santos, B. R. Tavares, and J. M. G. dos Santos. 2018. “An analysis methodology for the passing ship problem considering real-time simulations and moored ship dynamics: Application to the Port of Santos, in Brazil.” Appl. Ocean Res. 80 (Nov): 148–165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2018.08.012.
Wu, J., R. Zhou, S. Xu, and Z. Wu. 2017. “Probabilistic analysis of natural gas pipeline network accident based on Bayesian network.” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind. 46 (Mar): 126–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2017.01.025.
Xie, T., X. Lu, G. Wang, and F. Lin. 2021. “Research on safety risk, prevention and control in port dangerous goods container yard.” J. Phys. Conf. Ser. 1910 (1): 012029. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1910/1/012029.
Yager, R. R. 2001. “The power average operator.” IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part A Syst. Humans 31 (6): 724–731. https://doi.org/10.1109/3468.983429.
Yang, Z., Z. Yang, and J. Yin. 2018. “Realising advanced risk-based port state control inspection using data-driven Bayesian networks.” Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 110 (Apr): 38–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.01.033.
Zheng, Q., X. Liu, and W. Wang. 2021. “An extended interval type-2 fuzzy ORESTE method for risk analysis in FMEA.” Int. J. Fuzzy Syst. 23 (5): 1379–1395. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40815-020-01034-1.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 10 • Issue 1 • March 2024
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 25, 2023
Accepted: Aug 29, 2023
Published online: Dec 30, 2023
Published in print: Mar 1, 2024
Discussion open until: May 30, 2024
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.