A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach for Surface Settlement Caused by Metro Tunnel Construction Using Credal Network
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 8, Issue 3
Abstract
The epistemic uncertainty of geological condition, hydrological condition, and human factors causes the risk assessment result of metro construction to be imprecise. To reveal the epistemic uncertainty, a probabilistic risk assessment approach for metro construction is proposed based on the credal network. The epistemic uncertainty of risk factors is described by prior probability and conditional probability. Based on the scarcity of available data, prior probability is quantified by interval probability and probability box, and conditional probability is qualified by imprecise leaky noisy-OR model and imprecise Dirichlet model. Taking the shield tunnel projects of Beijing Metro Line 14 as the research object, the proposed approach and the conventional approach without considering epistemic uncertainty were adopted to predict the risk probability of surface settlement caused by shield tunnel construction. The predicted results were compared with the statistical probability derived from Peck formula and the field monitoring data, which verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed approach.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51538001). The authors are grateful to H. D. Estrada-Lugo for his assistance in calculation by OpenCossan. We also wish to offer thanks for the engineering data support of Beijing Transit Design and Research Consultant Co., Ltd. and Beijing Agiletech Engineering Consultant Co., Ltd. The first author thanks Professor Xiuli Du and Beijing University of Technology for the financial support to enable this research to be conducted at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.
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Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 8 • Issue 3 • September 2022
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 2, 2022
Accepted: Mar 18, 2022
Published online: Jul 12, 2022
Published in print: Sep 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Dec 12, 2022
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Business management
- Construction engineering
- Construction management
- Continuum mechanics
- Disaster risk management
- Dynamics (solid mechanics)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering mechanics
- Field tests
- Geotechnical engineering
- Human and behavioral factors
- Infrastructure
- Mathematics
- Motion (dynamics)
- Practice and Profession
- Probability
- Rail transportation
- Risk management
- Solid mechanics
- Subways
- Tests (by type)
- Transportation engineering
- Tunnels
- Uncertainty principles
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Cited by
- Na Xu, Yuting Hu, Bo Zhang, Hong Chang, Chaoran Guo, Xueqing Zhou, Safety-Risk Transmission Assessment Based on a Factor–Event Network for Metro Construction Projects, Natural Hazards Review, 10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-1884, 25, 1, (2024).