Earthquake Risk of Gas Pipelines in the Conterminous United States and Its Sources of Uncertainty
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 8, Issue 1
Abstract
Relatively little research has been conducted to systematically quantify the nationwide earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the US; simultaneously, national guidance is limited for operators across the country to consistently evaluate the earthquake risk of their assets. Furthermore, many challenges and uncertainties exist in a comprehensive seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines. As a first stage in a systematic nationwide assessment, we quantify the earthquake risk of gas transmission pipelines in the conterminous US due to strong ground shaking, including the associated uncertainties. Specifically, we integrate the US Geological Survey 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model, a logic tree–based exposure model, three different vulnerability models, and a consequence model. The results enable comparison against other risk assessment efforts, encourage more transparent deliberation regarding alternative approaches, and facilitate decisions on potentially assessing localized risks due to ground failures that require site-specific data. Based on the uncertainties approximated herein, the resulting sensitivity analyses suggest that the vulnerability model is the most influential source of uncertainty. Finally, we highlight research needs such as (1) developing more vulnerability models for regional seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines; (2) identifying, prioritizing, and measuring input pipeline attributes that are important for estimating seismic damage; and (3) better quantifying seismic hazards with their uncertainties at the national scale, for both ground failures and ground shaking.
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Data Availability Statement
1.
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions:
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PHMSA 2018 NPMS dataset for the entire US (Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration 2017) is available only to federal government officials via https://www.npms.phmsa.dot.gov/PipelineData.aspx and cannot be shared with anyone without express permission from PHMSA.
2.
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available in a repository or online in accordance with funder data retention policies:
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PHMSA 2018 annual reports (Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration 2020b), publicly available at https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/data-and-statistics/pipeline/gas-distribution-gas-gathering-gas-transmission-hazardous-liquids;
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PHMSA incident reports (Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration 2020a), publicly available at https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/data-and-statistics/pipeline/pipeline-incident-20-year-trends;
•
USGS 2018 NSHM hazard curves for additional site classes (Shumway et al. 2021), publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9RQMREV;
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USGS topographic-based (Wald and Allen 2007), publicly available at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/vs30/; and
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USGS 2020 National Crustal Model (Boyd 2020), publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9GO3CP8.
Acknowledgments
The first author gratefully acknowledges the US Geological Survey Mendenhall Research Fellowship Program for providing the financial support to conduct this research. We also greatly appreciate personnel from the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration—namely, Nathan Schoenkin, Peter Katchmar, Leigha Gooding, Piyali Talukdar, Buddy Secor, Wes Mathews, Kim West, and Bob Smith—for thoughtful comments and timely feedback that helped shape this research from the beginning. From the US Geological Survey, Ken Rukstales assisted with geospatial analyses and Oliver Boyd computed segment-specific subsurface data using the National Crustal Model. Discussions with Zhenhua (Ray) Rui helped us better characterize the raw pipeline dataset and develop an engineering exposure model for risk assessment. This research has benefitted from discussions with Doug Honegger, Craig Davis, Ernesto Salzano, Anastasios Sextos, Grigorios Tsinidis, Martin Zaleski, Mark Zellman, Jennie Watson-Lamprey, and Barry Zheng. Finally, we thank Doug Honegger, Tom O’Rourke, Brian Shiro, Janet Slate, and two anonymous reviewers for providing important comments that improved the manuscript. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.
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ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 8 • Issue 1 • March 2022
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Received: Apr 11, 2021
Accepted: Sep 29, 2021
Published online: Dec 6, 2021
Published in print: Mar 1, 2022
Discussion open until: May 6, 2022
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