Updated Design Wind Map for Brazil and Impacts on the Reliability of Built Structures
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 7, Issue 4
Abstract
Nonstationarity of wind regimes has an impact on design maps and on the reliability of built structures. This paper addressed the updating of design charts for wind loads, the nonstationary forecasting of maximum annual wind speeds for the next 30 years, and the evaluation of the impact of changing wind regimes on the structural reliability of built structures. The study object was the Brazilian territory, the design wind chart for which has been outdated for over 40 years. An updated design chart is proposed based on an extensive compilation of wind speed data measured at Brazilian (and neighboring) airports. The interpolation of wind speeds for intermediate locations was discussed based on polynomial and kriging response surfaces. The trend analysis for maximum annual wind speeds was carried out using Holt’s method. The impact of changing wind speeds was evaluated based on Monte Carlo analysis of a multistory steel building; structural collapse was determined using finite-element models that consider geometrical and material nonlinear analysis with imperfections. Results indicate that urgent attention should be given to changing wind speeds in the design of building structures.
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Data Availability Statement
The wind speed data set, the codes for the kriging and polynomial interpolation techniques, the code for Holt’s method, and the finite-element models that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge PIBIC/UNICAMP (Institutional Scientific Initiation Scholarship Program), São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP), Grant #2015/14497-0; the National Council of Scientific Development (CNPq), Grants 304005/2017-7 and 306373/2016-5; and the National Council for the Improvement of Higher Education (CAPES) for funding this research. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors or affiliates.
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Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 7 • Issue 4 • December 2021
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 24, 2020
Accepted: Jun 29, 2021
Published online: Aug 13, 2021
Published in print: Dec 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Jan 13, 2022
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