Abstract
Comparison of calculated failure probabilities of technical systems with observed failure frequencies is an important part of the assessment of probabilistic calculations and can point to significant factors that are neglected in the calculations. Recent comparisons of failure probabilities and failure frequencies of nuclear power plants, bridges, and dams have shown that the calculated and observed values correspond surprisingly well. In addition, although various factors could be identified which have both positive and negative influences on the observed values, they almost cancel each other out. This study focuses on the comparison as it relates to tunnels. Extensive statistics indicate that most tunnel collapses occur during construction. Although this is also seen to a certain extent in bridges, it is not to the extent seen in tunnels. Events such as earthquakes and floods, which are the major causes of collapse of other structures, account for only about 10% to 20% of all tunnel collapses. Increasingly, tunnels are also being proven probabilistically. Based on these calculations, the available failure statistics can be compared with representative probabilistic tunnel proofs. The comparison shows large deviations between individual computations as well as between the mean value of all computations and the observed collapse frequencies.
Formats available
You can view the full content in the following formats:
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the anonymous peer reviewers for their comments and suggestions.
References
ASTRA (Federal Roads Office). 2016. Netzzustandsbericht der Nationalstrassen. Ittigen, Switzerland: ASTRA.
Athanasopoulou, A., W. Bogusz, D. Bournas, S. Dimova, R. Frank, M. L. Sousa, and A. Pinto. 2019. Standardization needs for the design of underground structures. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
Beard, A. N. 2010. “Tunnel safety, risk assessment and decision-making.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 25 (1): 91–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2009.07.006.
Bergmeister, K. 2010. “Brenner basis tunnel: Stage reached by construction.” Tunnel 1: 6–17.
Bergmeister, K. 2016. “Performance-based design of bridges and the Brenner base tunnel.” In Proc., Symp. 2016 Performance-Based Approaches for Concrete Structures. Lausanne, Switzerland: International Federation for Structural Concrete.
Bjureland, W., J. Spross, F. Johansson, A. Prästings, and S. Larsson. 2017. “Reliability aspects of rock tunnel design with the observational method.” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 98 (Oct): 102–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2017.07.004.
Bolotin, V. V. 1969. Statistical methods in structural mechanics. San Francisco: Holden-Day.
Breitenbücher, R., C. Gehlen, P. Schiessl, J. Van Den Hoonaard, and T. Siemes. 1999. “Service life design for the Western Scheldt tunnel.” In Durability of building materials and components 8: Service Life and Durability of Materials and Components, edited by M. A. Lacasse and D. J. Vanier, 2–15. Ottawa: NRC Research Press.
BTS (British Tunnelling Society). 2003. The joint code of practice for risk management of tunnel works in the UK. London: BTS.
CEDD (Civil Engineering and Development Department). 2015. Catalogue of no table tunnel failure case histories (up to April 2015). Hong Kong: CEDD.
CEN (European Committee for Standardization). 2002. Basis of structural design. EN 1990:2002. Brussels, Belgium: CEN.
CIA (Central Intelligence Agency). 2020. The world factbook 2020–2021. Washington, DC: CIA.
Diamantidis, D., F. Zuccerelli, and A. Westhäuser. 2000. “Safety of long railway tunnels.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 67 (2): 135–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(99)00059-9.
DOT. 2019. “National tunnel inventory.” Accessed November 16, 2020. https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/bridge/inspection/tunnel/inventory/download.cfm.
Ellingwood, B. R. 2001. “Acceptable risk bases for design of structures.” Prog. Struct. Mater. Eng. 3 (2): 170–179. https://doi.org/10.1002/pse.78.
Fortsakis, P., D. Litsas, M. Kavvadas, and C. Trezos. 2011. “Reliability analysis of tunnel final lining.” In Proc., 3rd Int. Symp. on Geotechnical Safety and Risk. Karlsruhe, Germany: Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau.
Fuyong, C., W. Lin, and Z. Wengang. 2019. “Reliability assessment on stability of tunnelling perpendicularly beneath an existing tunnel considering spatial variabilities of rock mass properties.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 88 (Jun): 276–289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2019.03.013.
Gharouni-Nik, M., M. Naeimi, S. Ahadi, and Z. Alimoradi. 2014. “Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies.” Int. J. Adv. Struct. Eng. 6 (2): 1. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40091-014-0053-6.
GlobalData. 2019. “Project insight—Global tunnels construction projects.” Accessed August 15, 2020. https://www.marketresearch.com/GlobalData-v3648/Project-Insight-Global-Tunnels-Construction-12849561.
Goh, A. T., and A. M. Hefney. 2010. “Reliability assessment of EPB tunnel-related settlement.” Geomech. Eng. 2 (1): 57–69. https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2010.2.1.057.
Goh, A. T. C., and W. Zhang. 2012. “Reliability assessment of stability of underground rock caverns.” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 55 (Oct): 157–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2012.07.012.
Hamrouni, A., D. Dias, and B. Sbartai. 2017. “Reliability analysis of shallow tunnels using the response surface methodology.” Underground Space 2 (4): 246–258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.undsp.2017.11.003.
Imhof, D. 2004. Risk assessment of existing bridge structures. Cambridge, UK: Univ. of Cambridge.
Ingason, H., Y. Z. Li, and A. Lönnermark. 2015. Tunnel fire dynamics. New York: Springer.
ITA (International Tunneling and Underground Space Association). 2016. “Tunnel market survey.” Accessed December 8, 2019. https://www.tunnel-online.info/en/artikel/tunnel_Tunnel_Market_Survey_2016_3051818.html.
ITA (International Tunneling and Underground Space Association). 2017. The world tunnel congress. Lausanne, Switzerland: ITA.
Johansson, F., W. Bjureland, and J. Spross. 2016. Application of reliability-based design methods to underground excavation in rock. Stockholm, Sweden: Rock Engineering Research Foundation.
Kauermann, G., and H. Küchenhoff. 2011. Reaktorsicherheit: Nach Fukushima stellt sich die Risikofrage neu. Frankfurt, Germany: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Kohno, S., A. H. Ang, and W. H. Tang. 1992. “Reliability evaluation of idealized tunnel systems.” Struct. Saf. 11 (2): 81–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-4730(92)90001-4.
Konstantis, T., S. Konstantis, and P. Spyridis. 2016. Tunnel losses: Causes, impact, trends and risk engineering management. San Francisco: World Tunneling Congress.
Kroetz, H. M., N. A. Do, D. Dias, and A. T. Beck. 2018. “Reliability of tunnel lining design using the hyper static reaction method.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 77 (Jul): 59–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2018.03.028.
Langford, J. C., and M. S. Diederichs. 2013. “Reliability based approach to tunnel lining design using a modified point estimate method.” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 60 (Jun): 263–276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2012.12.034.
Laso, E., M. S. G. Lera, and E. Alarcón. 1995. “A level II reliability approach to tunnel support design.” Appl. Math. Modell. 19 (6): 371–382. https://doi.org/10.1016/0307-904X(95)00019-G.
Li, H. Z., and B. K. Low. 2010. “Reliability analysis of circular tunnel under hydrostatic stress field.” Comput. Geotech. 37 (1–2): 50–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2009.07.005.
Li, X., X. Li, and Y. Su. 2016. “A hybrid approach combining uniform design and support vector machine to probabilistic tunnel stability assessment.” Struct. Saf. 61 (Jul): 22–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2016.03.001.
Liu, H., and B. K. Low. 2017. “System reliability analysis of tunnels reinforced by rock bolts.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 65 (May): 155–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2017.03.003.
Low, B. K., and H. H. Einstein. 2013. “Reliability analysis of roof wedges and rock bolt forces in tunnels.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 38 (Sep): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2013.04.006.
Lü, Q., C. L. Chan, and B. K. Low. 2012. “Probabilistic evaluation of ground-support interaction for deep rock excavation using artificial neural network and uniform design.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 32 (Nov): 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2012.04.014.
Lü, Q., C. L. Chan, and B. K. Low. 2013. “System reliability assessment for a rock tunnel with multiple failure modes.” Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 46 (4): 821–833. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-012-0285-3.
Lü, Q., H. Y. Sun, and B. K. Low. 2011. “Reliability analysis of ground—Support interaction in circular tunnels using the response surface method.” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 48 (8): 1329–1343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2011.09.020.
Lü, Q., Z. P. Xiao, J. Ji, and J. Zheng. 2017. “Reliability based design optimization for a rock tunnel support system with multiple failure modes using response surface method.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 70 (Nov): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2017.06.017.
Maidl, B., M. Thewes, and U. Maidl. 2014. “Handbook of tunnel engineering II.” In Basics and additional services for design and construction. Berlin: Ernst & Sohn.
Meschke, G., B. T. Cao, and S. Freitag. 2018. “Reliability analysis and real-time predictions in mechanized tunneling.” In Resilience engineering for urban tunnels, 13–28. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Miro, S., M. König, D. Hartmann, and T. Schanz. 2015. “A probabilistic analysis of subsoil parameters uncertainty impacts on tunnel-induced ground movements with a back-analysis study.” Comput. Geotech. 68 (Jul): 38–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2015.03.012.
Mollon, G., D. Dias, and A. H. Soubra. 2009. “Probabilistic analysis of circular tunnels in homogeneous soil using response surface methodology.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 135 (9): 1314–1325. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000060.
Oberguggenberger M., and W. Fellin. 2005. “The fuzziness and sensitivity of failure probabilities.” In Analyzing uncertainty in civil engineering, edited by W. Fellin, H. Lessmann, M. Oberguggenberger, and R. Vieider. Berlin: Springer.
Papaioannou, I., H. Heidkamp, A. Düster, E. Rank, and C. Katz. 2009. “Random field reliability analysis as a means for risk assessment in tunnelling.” In Proc., 2nd Int. Conf. on Computational Methods in Tunnelling EURO: TUN 2009, edited by G. Meschke, G. Beer, J. Eberhardsteiner, D. Hartmann, and M. Thewes, 585–592. Freiburg, Germany: Aedificatio Publishers.
PR Newswire. 2020. “Tunnel and metro market 2020-2026 latest in-depth analysis report segment by manufacturers, type, applications and global forecast.” Accessed January 8, 2020. https://www.prnewswire.com/in/news-releases/tunnel-and-metro-market-2020-2026-latest-in-depth-analysis-report-segment-by-manufacturers-type-applications-and-global-forecast-839650087.html.
Proske, D. 2009. Catalogue of risks. Berlin: Springer.
Proske, D. 2016. “Differences between probability of failure and probability of core damage.” In Proc., 14th Int. Probabilistic Workshop, edited by R. Caspeele, L. Taerwe, and D. Proske, 109–122. Berlin: Springer.
Proske, D. 2017. “Comparison of bridge collapse frequencies with failure probabilities.” In Proc., 15th Int. Probabilistic Workshop, 15–23. Dresden, Germany: TUD-Press.
Proske, D. 2018a. Bridge collapse frequencies and failure probabilities. Berlin: Springer.
Proske, D. 2018b. “Comparison of dam failure frequencies and failure probabilities.” Beton-und Stahlbetonbau 113 (2018): 2–6. https://doi.org/10.1002/best.201800047.
Proske, D. 2019. “Comparison of frequencies and probabilities of failure in engineering sciences.” In Proc., 29th European Safety and Reliability Conf., edited by M. Beer and E. Zio, 2040–2044. Singapore: Research Publishing.
Proske, D. 2020. “Global burden of structural collapse.” [In German.] Bautechnik 97 (4): 233–242. https://doi.org/10.1002/bate.201900015.
Proske, D., P. Spyridis, and L. Heinzelmann. 2019. “Comparison of tunnel failure frequencies and failure probabilities.” In Proc., 17th Int. Probabilistic Workshop, edited by D. Yurchenko and D. Proske, 177–182. Edinburgh, UK: Heriot Watt Univ.
Raju, S. 2016. “Estimating the frequency of nuclear accidents.” Sci. Global Secur. 24 (1): 37–62. https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2016.1127039.
Reiner, H. 2011. “Developments in the tunnelling industry following introduction of the tunnelling code of practice.” In Proc., IMIA Annual Conf. Amsterdam, Netherlands: International Association of Engineering Insurers.
Sandström, G. E. 1963. The history of tunneling: Underground working through the ages. London: Barrie and Rockliff.
SBB (Swiss Federal Railways). 2018. Die SBB in Zahlen und Fakten. Bern, Switzerland: SBB.
Schäfer, M. 2019. “Tunnelling in Germany: Statistics.” Accessed December 8, 2019. https://www.stuva.de/?id=statistik.
Seidenfuss, T. 2006. “Collapse in tunneling.” Master thesis, EPFL School of Architecture, Civil, and Environmental Engineering, Stuttgart Univ. of Applied Sciences.
Shin, H.-S., Y.-C. Kwon, Y.-S. Jung, G.-J. Bae, and Y.-G. Kim. 2009. “Methodology for quantitative hazard assessment for tunnel collapses based on case histories in Korea.” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 46 (6): 1072–1087. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2009.02.009.
Sousa, R. L. 2010. “Risk analysis for tunneling projects.” Doctoral thesis, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Czech Technical Univ. in Prague.
Špačková, O., J. Šejnoha, and D. Straub. 2013. “Probabilistic assessment of tunnel construction performance based on data.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 37 (Aug): 62–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2013.02.006.
Spaethe, G. 1992. Die Sicherheit tragender Baukonstruktionen. Berlin: Springer.
Spyridis, P. 2014. “Adjustment of tunnel lining service life through appropriate safety factors.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 40 (Feb): 324–332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2013.10.006.
Spyridis, P., S. Konstantis, and A. Gakis. 2016. “Performance indicator of tunnel linings under geotechnical uncertainty.” Geomech. Tunnelling 9 (2): 158–164. https://doi.org/10.1002/geot.201500026.
Statista. 2020. “Number of road tunnels in China from 2010 to 2018.” Accessed August 15, 2020. https://www.statista.com/statistics/258360/number-of-road-tunnels-in-china/.
Stille, H. 2017. Geological uncertainties in tunnelling—Risk assessment and quality assurance. Lausanne, Switzerland: International Tunnelling Association.
STS (Swiss Tunneling Society). 2020. “Anzahl der tunnel und stollen.” Accessed August 15, 2020. https://www.swisstunnel.ch/tunnelbau-schweiz/uebersichtsgrafiken/anzahl-tunnel/.
Su, Y. H., P. Zhang, and M. H. Zhao. 2007. “Improved response surface method and its application in stability reliability degree analysis of tunnel surrounding rock.” J. Cent. South Univ. Technol. 14 (6): 870–876. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-007-0165-2.
Thewes, M., and U. Maidl. 2013. Handbook of tunnel engineering. Berlin: Ernst & Sohn.
Vogel, T., D. Zwicky, D. Joray, M. Diggelmann, and N. P. Hoj. 2009. “Tragsicherheit der bestehenden Kunstbauten.” In Sicherheit des verkehrssystems strasse und dessen kunstbauten. Bern, Switzerland: Bundesamt für Strassen.
Wang, Q., H. Fang, and L. Shen. 2016. “Reliability analysis of tunnels using a metamodeling technique based on augmented radial basis functions.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 56 (Jun): 45–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2016.02.007.
Yang, W., H. Baji, and C. Q. Li. 2018a. “Time-dependent reliability method for service life prediction of reinforced concrete shield metro tunnels.” Struct. Infrastruct. Eng. 14 (8): 1095–1107. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2017.1401094.
Yang, X. L., T. Zhou, and W. T. Li. 2018b. “Reliability analysis of tunnel roof in layered Hoek-Brown rock masses.” Comput. Geotech. 104 (Dec): 302–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2017.12.007.
Zeng, P., S. Senent, and R. Jimenez. 2016. “Reliability analysis of circular tunnel face stability obeying Hoek-Brown failure criterion considering different distribution types and correlation structures.” J. Comput. Civ. Eng. 30 (1): 04014126. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000464.
Zhang, G. H., Y. Y. Jiao, L. B. Chen, H. Wang, and S. C. Li. 2016. “Analytical model for assessing collapse risk during mountain tunnel construction.” Can. Geotech. J. 53 (2): 326–342. https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2015-0064.
Zhao, H., Z. Ru, X. Chang, S. Yin, and S. Li. 2014. “Reliability analysis of tunnel using least square support vector machine.” Tunnelling Underground Space Technol. 41 (Mar): 14–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2013.11.004.
Zhao, L. 2009. “Statistics of tunnel collapse accidents and its assessment based on case reasoning.” J. Railway Sci. Eng. 6 (4): 54–58.
Zulauf, C. 2012. “Risk evaluation for road tunnels: Current developments.” In Proc., 6th Int. Conf. Tunnel Safety and Ventilation 2012, 26–33. Graz, Austria: Graz Univ. of Technology.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 7 • Issue 2 • June 2021
Copyright
This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
History
Received: Jul 13, 2020
Accepted: Sep 16, 2020
Published online: Jan 31, 2021
Published in print: Jun 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Jun 30, 2021
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.