Probabilistic Model for Regional Multiseverity Casualty Estimation due to Building Damage Following an Earthquake
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 4, Issue 3
Abstract
This paper introduces a probabilistic formulation for the estimation of the spatial distribution of multiseverity casualties due to earthquakes. The formulation assesses the number, severity, and distribution of injuries in the affected region. The model is an essential component of resilience formulations of health care systems in a community because it represents the demand on the system. Moreover, the model extends the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework from single-building analysis to multiple-building analysis. The paper gives a full description of both the underlying statistical interdependencies among the model’s variables and the extension of the formulation of the PBEE integral to a regional context with multiple buildings. Thus, the formulation advances current methodologies that focus only on single casualty types (e.g., Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response [PAGER]) or on the mean number of casualties (e.g., Hazus) rather than their joint probability distribution. Two numerical algorithms are presented in this paper to solve for the casualty model: one based on traditional forward Monte Carlo and another based on the central limit theorem (CLT). It is shown that the latter model is highly computationally efficient while providing accurate results.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This research was partially supported by NSF EAGER Grant CMMI-1645335 and the Shah Family Fellowship through the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. The authors are grateful for their generous support.
References
Alexander, D. 1996. “The health effects of earthquakes in the mid-1990s.” Disasters 20 (3): 231–247. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.1996.tb01036.x.
Allen, T. I., and D. J. Wald. 2007. Topographic slope as a proxy for seismic site-conditions (Vs 30) and amplification around the globe. Reston VA: USGS.
Aroni, S., and M. E. Durkin. 1985. Injuries and occupant behavior in earthquakes. Bucharest, Romania: Joint US-Romanian Seminar on Earthquakes and Energy.
ATC (Applied Technology Council). 1985. Earthquake damage evaluation data for California. Redwood City, CA: ATC.
Bensi, M. T., A. Der Kiureghian, and D. Straub. 2011. A Bayesian network methodology for infrastructure seismic risk assessment and decision support. Berkeley, CA: Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center.
Bevington, J., et al. 2012. “Exposure data development for the global earthquake model: Inventory data capture tools.” In Proc., 15th World Conf. on Earthquake Engineering (15WCEE). Lisbon, Portugal.
Bhatti, S. H., I. Ahmed, N. A. Qureshi, M. Akram, and J. Khan. 2008. “Head trauma due to earthquake October 2005: Experience of 300 cases at the combined military hospital Rawalpindi.” J. Coll. Physicians Surgeons Pak. 18 (1): 22–26.
Billindsley, P. 1995. Probability and measure. 3rd ed. New York: Wiley.
Campbell, K. W., and Y. Bozorgnia. 2014. “NGA-West2 ground motion model for the average horizontal components of PGA, PGV, and 5% damped linear acceleration response spectra.” Earthquake Spectra 30 (3): 1087–1115. https://doi.org/10.1193/062913EQS175M.
Ceferino, L., A. Kiremidjian, and G. Deierlein. 2017. “Framework of the estimation of the health status of the population during an earthquake emergency.” In Proc., 16th World Conf. on Earthquake Engineering, 16WCEE 2017, 13. Santiago de Chile, Chile.
Ceferino, L., A. Kiremidjian, and G. Deierlein. 2018. “Regional multi-severity casualty estimation due to building damage following a Mw 8.8 earthquake scenario in Lima, Peru.” Earthquake Spectra, in press.
Deierlein, G. G., H. Krawinkler, and C. A. Cornell. 2003. “A framework methodology for performance-based earthquake engineering.” In Proc., 2003 Pacific Conf. on Earthquake Engineering. Stanford, CA.
Dolan, B., A. Esson, P. P. Grainger, S. Richardson, and M. Ardagh. 2011. “Earthquake disaster response in Christchurch, New Zealand.” J. Emergency Nurs. 37 (5): 506–509. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jen.2011.06.009.
Durkin, M. E. 1996. “Casualty patterns in the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake.” In Proc., 11th World Conf. on Earthquake Engineering (11WCEE). Sociedad Mexicana de Ingeniería Sísmica, A.C., Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Durkin, M. E., C. C. Thiel, J. E. Schneider, and T. De Vriend. 1991. “Injuries and emergency medical response in the Loma Prieta earthquake.” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81 (5): 2143–2166.
FEMA. 2011. National disaster recovery framework. Washington, DC: FEMA.
FEMA. 2015. “Hazus–MH 2.1: Technical manual.” Accessed August 1, 2017. http://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1820-25045-6286/hzmh2_1_eq_tm.pdf.
Francis, R., and B. Bekera. 2014. “A metric and frameworks for resilience analysis of engineered and infrastructure systems.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 121: 90–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.07.004.
Goda, K., and G. M. Atkinson. 2009. “Probabilistic characterization of spatially correlated response spectra for earthquakes in Japan.” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99 (5): 3003–3020. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090007.
Goda, K., and H. P. Hong. 2008. “Spatial correlation of peak ground motions and response spectra.” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 98 (1): 354–365. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120070078.
Gu, J., et al. 2010. “Temporal and spatial characteristics and treatment strategies of traumatic brain injury in Wenchuan earthquake.” Emergency Med. J. 27 (3): 216–219. https://doi.org/10.1136/emj.2008.065342.
Idriss, I. M. 2014. “An NGA-West2 empirical model for estimating the horizontal spectral values generated by shallow crustal earthquakes.” Earthquake Spectra 30 (3): 1155–1177. https://doi.org/10.1193/070613EQS195M.
Jaiswal, K., and D. Wald. 2010a. “An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation.” Earthquake Spectra 26 (4): 1017–1037. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.3480331.
Jaiswal, K. S., and D. J. Wald. 2008. Creating a global building inventory for earthquake loss assessment and risk management. Reston, VA: USGS.
Jaiswal, K. S., and D. J. Wald. 2010b. “Development of a semi-empirical loss model within the USGS prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response (PAGER) system.” In Proc., 9th US and 10th Canadian Conf. on Earthquake Engineering: Reaching beyond Borders. Toronto: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and Canadian Association for Earthquake Engineering.
Jayaram, N., and J. W. Baker. 2008. “Statistical tests of the joint distribution of spectral acceleration values.” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 98 (5): 2231–2243. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120070208.
Jones, B. L. M., et al. 2008. “The ShakeOut scenario.”. Reston, VA: USGS.
Koller, D., and N. Friedman. 2009. Probabilistic graphical models. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Li, W., J. Qian, X. Liu, Q. Zhang, L. Wang, D. Chen, and Z. Lin. 2009. “Management of severe crush injury in a front-line tent ICU after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China: An experience with 32 cases.” Crit. Care 13 (6): R178. https://doi.org/10.1186/cc8160.
Li, X.-H., and J.-C. Zheng. 2014. “Efficient post-disaster patient transportation and transfer: Experiences and lessons learned in emergency medical rescue in Aceh after the 2004 Asian tsunami.” Mil. Med. 179 (8): 913–919. https://doi.org/10.7205/MILMED-D-13-00525.
Liel, A. 2008. “Assessing the collapse risk of California’s existing reinforced concrete frame structures: Metrics for seismic safety decisions.” Ph.D. thesis, Stanford Univ.
Loth, C., and J. W. Baker. 2013. “A spatial cross-correlation model of spectral accelerations at multiple periods.” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn. 42 (3): 397–417. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.2212.
Markhvida, M., L. Ceferino, and J. Baker. 2017. “Effect of ground motion correlation on regional seismic loss estimation: application to Lima, Peru using a cross-correlated principal component analysis model.” In Proc., 12th Int. Conf. on Structural Safety and Reliability, 1844–1853. Vienna, Austria.
Markhvida, M., L. Ceferino, and J. W. Baker. 2018. “Modeling spatially correlated spectral accelerations at multiple periods using principal component analysis and geostatistics.” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn. 47 (5): 1107–1123. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3007.
Mulvey, J. M., S. U. Awan, A. A. Qadri, and M. A. Maqsood. 2008. “Profile of injuries arising from the 2005 Kashmir earthquake: The first 72 h.” Injury 39 (5): 554–560. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.injury.2007.07.025.
Myrtle, R. C., S. F. Masri, R. L. Nigbor, and J. P. Caffrey. 2005. “Classification and prioritization of essential systems in hospitals under extreme events.” Earthquake Spectra 21 (3): 779–802. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1988338.
Naghi, T., K. Kambiz, J. Shahriar, T. Afshin, S. Reza, P. Behnam, and A. Bahador. 2005. “Musculoskeletal injuries associated with earthquake: A report of injuries of Iran’s December 26, 2003 Bam earthquake casualties managed in tertiary referral centers.” Injury 36 (1): 27–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.injury.2004.06.021.
Nie, H., S. Y. Tang, W. B. Lau, J. C. Zhang, Y. W. Jiang, B. L. Lopez, X. L. Ma, Y. Cao, and T. A. Christopher. 2011. “Triage during the week of the Sichuan earthquake: A review of utilized patient triage, care, and disposition procedures.” Injury 42 (5): 515–520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.injury.2010.01.113.
NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration). 1972. “A study of earthquake losses in San Francisco Bay Area: Data and analysis.”. Boulder, CO: NOAA.
Noh, H. Y., A. Kiremidjian, L. Ceferino, and E. So. 2017. “Bayesian updating of earthquake vulnerability functions with application to mortality rates.” Earthquake Spectra 33 (3): 1173–1189. https://doi.org/10.1193/081216EQS133M.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory. 2013. LandScan global population database 2013. Oak Ridge, TN.
OpenStreetMap Contributors. 2017. “Planet dump.” Accessed August 1, 2017. https://planet.osm.org.
Petal, M. 2011. “Earthquake casualties research and public education.” Chap. 3 in Human casualties in earthquakes: Progress in modelling and mitigation, 25–50. New York: Springer.
Phalkey, R., J. D. Reinhardt, and M. Marx. 2011. “Injury epidemiology after the 2001 Gujarat earthquake in India: A retrospective analysis of injuries treated at a rural hospital in the Kutch district immediately after the disaster.” Global Health Action 4 (1): 7196. https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v4i0.7196.
Rathore, M. F. A., S. Hanif, P. W. New, A. W. Butt, M. H. Aasi, and S.-U. U. Khan. 2008. “The prevalence of deep vein thrombosis in a cohort of patients with spinal cord injury following the Pakistan earthquake of October 2005.” Spinal Cord 46 (7): 523–526. https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.sc.3102170.
Redmond, A. D., S. Mardel, B. Taithe, T. Calvot, J. Gosney, A. Duttine, and S. Girois. 2011. “A qualitative and quantitative study of the surgical and rehabilitation response to the earthquake in Haiti, January 2010.” Prehospital Disaster Med. 26 (6): 449–456. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X12000088.
Salinas, C., C. Salinas, and J. Kurata. 1998. “The effects of the Northridge earthquake on the pattern of emergency department care.” Am. J. Emergency Med. 16 (3): 254–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0735-6757(98)90095-X.
Shapira, S., L. Aharonson-Daniel, I. M. Shohet, C. Peek-Asa, and Y. Bar-Dayan. 2015. “Integrating epidemiological and engineering approaches in the assessment of human casualties in earthquakes.” Nat. Hazards 78 (2): 1447–1462. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1780-0.
Shoaf, K. I., H. R. Sareen, L. H. Nguyen, and L. B. Bourque. 1998. “Injuries as a result of California earthquakes in the past decade.” Disasters 22 (3): 218–235. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-7717.00088.
Spence, R., and E. So. 2009. Estimating shaking induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events.”. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd.
Straub, D., and A. Der Kiureghian. 2010. “Bayesian network enhanced with structural reliability methods: Application.” J. Eng. Mech. 136 (10): 1259–1970. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EM.1943-7889.0000170.
Sudo, A., T. Kashiyama, T. Yabe, and H. Kanasugi. 2016. “Human mobility estimation following massive disaster using filtering approach.” J. Disaster Res. 11 (2): 217–224. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2016.p0217.
USGS. 2015. “Earthquakes with 1,000 or more deaths 1900–2014.” Accessed August 1, 2017. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/world_deaths.php.
Weatherill, G. A., V. Silva, H. Crowley, and P. Bazzurro. 2015. “Exploring the impact of spatial correlations and uncertainties for portfolio analysis in probabilistic seismic loss estimation.” Bull. Earthquake Eng. 13 (4): 957–981. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9730-5.
Yabe, T., K. Tsubouchi, and A. Sudo. 2016. “Estimating evacuation hotspots using GPS data: What happened after the large earthquakes in Kumamoto, Japan?” In Proc., 5th Int. Workshop on Urban Computing, 1–5. San Francisco, CA.
Zhao, J. X., et al. 2006. “Attenuation relations of strong ground motion in Japan using site classification based on predominant period.” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 96 (3): 898–913. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050122.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 4 • Issue 3 • September 2018
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 11, 2017
Accepted: Jan 8, 2018
Published online: May 11, 2018
Published in print: Sep 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Oct 11, 2018
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.