Slope Safety Prediction under Static and Seismic Loads

A simplified procedure permitting the determination of the probability of failure of natural or man-built slopes under static and seismic conditions is presented. Limit equilibrium is expressed as a function of the soil strength parameters (random variables), the numerical values of which are obtained from strength tests under drained conditions. Seismic load is introduced in terms of the maximum horizontal acceleration expected to occur at the site of the slope. The procedure is applied in a case study to predict the probability of failure of a slope during an earthquake. The seismic load is determined in two different ways, namely, (a) from the seismic map of the region (deterministic), and (b) from an engineering analysis of the seismic history of the site of the slope (probabilistic). The results are presented and discussed.