Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 147, Issue 3
Abstract
Ports are complex engineering systems that have always been evolving to satisfy the new or changing demands of stakeholders. However, the ever-growing complexity in port sectors in a volatile environment creates a high degree of uncertainty in port planning projects. This study presents a structured framework to deal with uncertainties in the port planning process. Stakeholder analysis, different methods of addressing uncertain developments, and SWOT analysis were jointly used to develop the framework. Effective actions were planned in response to opportunities and vulnerabilities derived from uncertainties that manifest in a projected lifetime. Face-to-face interviews with key stakeholders and literature review were conducted to identify uncertainties and planning horizons. The framework was applied to the Ports of Isafjordur Network in Iceland. The results show that demand for aquaculture and cruise activities create the main uncertainties for the port network. Uncertainties mainly present opportunities in the short-term horizon, while in the middle-term horizon the port network is confronted with multiple vulnerabilities. The nonlinearity of dealing with uncertainty by application of the framework provides a robust and better plan toward its success in a dynamic world. The framework supports decision making under uncertainty by facilitating adaptive port planning.
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Appendix. Summary of Addressed Uncertainties
Table 3 summarizes the results of dealing with uncertainties based on the presented framework for the Ports of Isafjordur Network.
Data Availability Statement
All data, models, and code generated or used during the study appear in the published article.
Acknowledgments
The time and expertise contributed by the stakeholders in the interviews are gratefully acknowledged. This research was supported in part by the Doctoral Grants of the University of Iceland Research Fund (Rannsoknarsjodur Haskola Islands), the Municipality of Isafjordur (Isafjardarbaejar), and the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration Research Fund (Rannsoknarsjodur Vegagerdarinnar).
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Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 147 • Issue 3 • May 2021
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Aug 30, 2020
Accepted: Dec 15, 2020
Published online: Mar 3, 2021
Published in print: May 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Aug 3, 2021
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