Real-Time Tsunami Prediction by Inversion Method Using Offshore Observed GPS Buoy Data: Nankaido
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 139, Issue 3
Abstract
In Japan, the probability of a Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai earthquake occurring in the early 21st century is high. Given this likelihood, estimating the resulting tsunami in real time is desirable. This study details an inversion method for real-time tsunami predictions using only observed offshore tsunami data. Numerical experiments demonstrate that (1) the tsunami wave source is estimated fairly well using the inversion method compared with the initial sea surface displacement calculated from the earthquake fault model; (2) the tsunami profiles are predicted with great accuracy at coastal locations of interest; and (3) the profiles are accurately and easily updated using a longer duration of observed tsunami data after an earthquake. This study also investigates techniques to improve the accuracy of the forecasts: screening optimal locations for offshore global positioning system (GPS) buoys, using a longer period of observation data, and decreasing the duration of the tsunami prediction. These techniques illustrate the practical application of this method for tsunami forecasting.
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Acknowledgments
A part of this study was supported by the Grant-in-Aid for Exploratory Research from The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT).
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Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 139 • Issue 3 • May 2013
Pages: 221 - 231
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 24, 2011
Accepted: Apr 24, 2012
Published online: Apr 27, 2012
Published in print: May 1, 2013
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