Probabilistic Projection of Mean Sea Level and Coastal Extremes
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 139, Issue 2
Abstract
Fundamental uncertainties governing sea level rise projections are associated with the rate of acceleration in global sea level rise and the local factors affecting relative sea level. Recent models and observations of global ice sheets and their contributions to sea level, as well as climate models, suggest that significant sea level acceleration is imminent, yet observational data from tide gauges and satellites have not yet found rates consistent with some of the projections. To allow coastal planners a way to incorporate the uncertainties of acceleration, a synthesis of observed sea level data with selected distributions of acceleration and the current rate of rise is proposed to provide probabilistic estimates of future sea levels. The resulting distributions can be adopted in a risk-based framework to assess project vulnerability. As geophysical understanding of the climate-forced sea level dynamics improves, the selection and veracity of these distributions and their sea level projections will improve. As a case study, the methodology is demonstrated by application in Key West in southern Florida.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 139 • Issue 2 • March 2013
Pages: 135 - 141
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 31, 2011
Accepted: Mar 27, 2012
Published online: Mar 29, 2012
Published in print: Mar 1, 2013
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