Reliability Assessment for Operational Wave Forecasting System in Prince William Sound, Alaska
Publication: Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 136, Issue 6
Abstract
To ensure the safety of a variety of marine operations, ocean weather monitoring and prediction in many coastal regions have gained prominence over the last couple of decades. To support ongoing forecasting efforts in Prince William Sound, the site of the worst oil spill disaster in U.S. history, a three-way coupled wave forecasting system is developed. The issue of wave forecast reliability is addressed in the context of the associated uncertainty that confronts the manager of engineering operations or other planners. This issue has generally not been systematically addressed in literature. High-resolution 36-h daily forecasts of significant wave heights (SWHs) are compared with measurements from buoys and satellites for about 1 year. The results show that 70% of the peak SWHs (in the range 5–8 m) were predicted with an accuracy of 15% or less for a forecast lead time of 9 h. The errors are larger for smaller SWHs. Correlation coefficients and indices of agreement between predicted and measured SWHs were reasonable and generally more than 0.78 for all lead times. On average, our analysis showed 70% or greater likelihood of the prediction falling within a tolerance of for all lead times. Barring changes in model physics, resolution, etc., similar acceptance levels could be expected from comparable systems.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This work was possible due to funding received from PWS OSRI (through a NOAA grant), Maine Sea Grant College Program, NASA, and the PWS Regional Citizens’ Advisory Council. ENVISAT altimetry data were provided by the European Space Agency. NOAA/NESDIS staff assisted with the satellite data. The writers acknowledge Dr. Remko Scharroo for his continuing support, maintenance, and development of the Radar Altimeter Database system. The efforts of the NCEP, which make local predictions possible, are invaluable. Dr. Yi Chao of JPL provided access to forecasts of surface currents in PWS. Dr. Scott Pegau and his team helped in the installation and provision of gauge data. All of the above contributions are gratefully acknowledged. Dr. Khalid Zubier and Mr. Dongcheng Li made technical contributions.
References
Allard, R. A., Dykes, J. D., Hsu, Y. L., Kaihatu, J. M., and Conley, D. (2008). “A real-time nearshore wave and current prediction system.” J. Mar. Syst., 69, 37–58.
Bidlot, J., Holmes, D. J., Wittmann, P. A., Lalbeharry, R., and Chen, H. S. (2002). “Intercomparison of the performance of operational ocean wave forecasting systems with buoy data.” Weather Forecast., 17, 287–310.
Booij, N., Ris, R. C., and Holthuijsen, L. H. (1999). “A third-generation wave model for coastal region: 1. Model description and validation.” J. Geophys. Res., 104(C4), 7649–7666.
Chen, Q., Zhao, H., Hu, K., and Douglass, S. L. (2005). “Prediction of wind waves in a shallow estuary.” J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng., 131(4), 137–148.
Done, J., Davis, C. A., and Weisman, M. (2004). “The next generation of NWP: Explicit forecasts of convection using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model.” Atmos. Sci. Lett., 5, 110–117.
Dykes, J. D., Wang, D. W., and Book, J. W. (2009). “An evaluation of a high-resolution operational wave forecasting system in Adriatic Sea.” J. Mar. Syst., 78(1), S255–S271.
Funakoshi, Y., Hagen, S. C., and Bacopoulos, P. (2008). “Coupling of hydrodynamic and wave models: Case study for Hurricane Floyd (1999) hindcast.” J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng., 134(6), 321–335.
Gorman, R. M., and Neilsen, C. G. (1999). “Modelling shallow water wave generation and transformation in an intertidal estuary.” Coastal Eng., 36, 197–217.
Kain, J. S., Weiss, S. J., Levit, J. J., Baldwin, M. E., and Brigh, D. R. (2006). “Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL spring program 2004.” Weather Forecast., 21, 167–181.
Komen, G. J., Cavaleri, L., Donelan, M., Hasselmann, K., Hasselmann, S., and Janssen, P. A. E. M. (1994). Dynamics and modeling of ocean waves, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, Mass.
Liu, H., Olsson, P. Q., Volz, K. P., and Yi, H. (2006). “A climatology of mesoscale model simulated low-level wind jets over Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait, Alaska.” Estuarine Coastal Shelf Sci., 70, 551–566.
Londhe, S. N., and Panchang, V. G. (2006). “One-day wave forecast based on artificial neural networks.” J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 23, 1593–1603.
Millar, D. L., Smith, H. C. M., and Reeve, D. E. (2007). “Modelling analysis of the sensitivity of shoreline change to a wave farm.” Ocean Eng., 34, 884–901.
Mitsuyasu, H., Tasai, F., Subara, T., Mizuno, S., Ohkusu, M., Honda, T., and Rikiishi, K. (1975). “Observations of the directional spectrum of ocean waves using a clover-leaf buoy.” J. Phys. Oceanogr., 5, 750–760.
Moeini, M. H., and Etemad-Shahidi, A. (2007). “Applications of two numerical models for wave hindcasting in Lake Erie.” Appl. Ocean. Res., 29, 137–145.
Mölders, N. (2008). “Suitability of weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to predict the June 2005 fire weather for interior Alaska.” Weather Forecast., 23, 953–973.
Naeije, M., Scharroo, R., Doornbos, E., and Schrama, E. (2008). “Global altimetry sea-level service: Glass.” NUSP-2 Rep. No. GO 52320, Agency for Aerospace Programmes, DEO, Delft Univ. of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
Panchang, V. G., Jeong, C., and Li, D. (2008). “Wave climatology in coastal Maine for aquaculture and other applications.” Estuaries Coasts, 31, 289–299.
Piatt, J. F., Lensink, C. J., Butler, W., Kendziorek, M., and Nysewander, D. R. (1990). “Immediate impact of the Exxon Valdez oil spill on marine birds.” Auk, 107, 387–397.
Plant, N. G., Edwards, K. L., Kaihatu, J. M., Veeramony, J., Hsu, L., and Holland, K. T. (2009). “The effect of bathymetric filtering on nearshore process model results.” Coastal Eng., 56, 484–493.
Ris, R. C., Booij, N., and Holthuijsen, L. H. (1999). “A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: Part II—Verification.” J. Geophys. Res., 104(C4), 7667–7681.
Rogers, W. E., Hwang, P. A., and Wang, D. W. (2003). “Investigation of wave growth and decay in the SWAN model: Three regional-scale applications.” J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 366–389.
Rogers, W. E., Kaihatu, J. M., Hsu, Y. L., Jensen, R., Dykes, J. D., and Holland, T. (2007). “Forecasting and hindcasting with the SWAN model in the Southern California Bight.” Coastal Eng., 54(1), 1–15.
Sorensen, O. R., Kofoed-Hansen, H., Rugbjerg, M., and Sorensen, L. S. (2004). “A third generation spectral wave model using an unstructured finite volume technique.” Proc., 29th Int. Conf. on Coastal Engineering, Lisbon, Portugal, 894–906.
Tolman, H. L. (1991). “A third generation model for wind waves on slowly varying, unsteady and inhomogeneous depths and currents.” J. Phys. Oceanogr., 21, 782–797.
Tolman, H. L. (1999). “User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH-III version 1.18.” NOAA/NWS OMB contribution, Vol. 166, NCEP.
Tolman, H. L. (2009). “User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III version 3.14.” NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB Technical Note276, NCEP.
WAMDI Group. (1988). “The WAM model—A third-generation ocean wave prediction model.” J. Phys. Oceanogr., 18, 1775–1810.
Wang, J., et al. (2001). “Numerical simulations of seasonal circulation patterns and thermohaline structures of Prince William Sound, Alaska.” Fish. Oceanogr., 10(1), 132–148.
Willmott, C. J., et al. (1985). “Statistics for the evaluation and comparison of models.” J. Geophys. Res., 90(C5), 8995–9005.
Yamaguchi, M. (1984). “Approximate expressions for integral properties of the JONSWAP spectrum.” Proc. Jap. Soc. Civil Eng., 345(II-1), 149–152 (in Japanese).
Zubier, K., Panchang, V., and Demirbilek, Z. (2003). “Simulations of wave at Duck (North Carolina) using two numerical models.” Coast. Eng. Japan, 45(3), 439–469.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
Volume 136 • Issue 6 • November 2010
Pages: 337 - 349
Copyright
© 2010 ASCE.
History
Received: Sep 25, 2009
Accepted: Mar 8, 2010
Published online: Jun 24, 2010
Published in print: Nov 2010
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.