Establishing a Range of Extreme Precipitation Estimates in California for Planning in the Face of Climate Change
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 147, Issue 9
Abstract
For California water resource planning in the face of climate change, hydrological and water distribution models require inputs of high spatial– and temporal–resolution temperature and precipitation projections. We used a quantile delta mapping (QDM) procedure along with bias correction and localized constructed analogs (LOCA) downscaling to produce 6-km temperature and precipitation fields that preserve the relative changes in these quantities from climate model projections. We developed a wetter moderate warming (WMW) case from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 emissions scenario and a dry extreme warming (DEW) case from the RCP8.5 scenario to establish a range of projected hydroclimatological conditions. In both cases, we found that extreme precipitation becomes more extreme, but the sign of changes in moderate precipitation events differs between the two cases. The precipitation estimate range is most broad in southern California, where it varies by a factor of 2 and is 50% across the Sierra Nevada. This approach, adopted by the California Department of Water Resources, balances a host of practical water resource planning considerations with the evolving state of the science for future hydroclimatological projections.
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Data Availability Statement
The analyses presented here were derived from several data sets available elsewhere. The data set from Livneh et al. (2013) can be downloaded from ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Datasets/livneh/metvars/. The DEW and WMW data sets can be downloaded from ftp://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/pub/dcp/archive/cmip5/loca/LOCA_2016-04-02/ by navigating to the HadGEM2-ES and CNRM-CM5 model results, respectively. The VIC model can be downloaded from https://github.com/UW-Hydro/VIC. The DEW and WMW projections and code used to produce those projections can be downloaded from https://bit.ly/2WQBjaE.
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by funding from the California Department of Water Resources Climate Change Program, with supplemental funding from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program under Project RC18-1577. The discussions with Alan Rhoades of LBNL and Minxue (Kevin) He, Elissa Lynn, and Dr. Mike Anderson of DWR also contributed to this work.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 147 • Issue 9 • September 2021
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Received: Apr 1, 2020
Accepted: Mar 1, 2021
Published online: Jun 29, 2021
Published in print: Sep 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Nov 29, 2021
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