Abstract
This work forwards time-varying sensitivity analysis of control policies as an approach to identify the value of the alternative timing of forecasts in a complex multipurpose reservoir system. The time-varying forecast diagnostics are demonstrated using the Conowingo Dam in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin. First, we evaluate the utility of multiple lead time forecasts, both in isolation and in combination, to determine the sensitivity of optimal operations to forecast lead time. We then use time-varying sensitivities to determine how the system utilizes a particular forecast through time for two policies that emphasize hydropower and environmental objectives, respectively, in order to determine how the value of inflow information changes with respect to stakeholder preferences and evolving hydrologic conditions. Results show that the value of inflow information varies greatly depending on the objectives being emphasized and can decline or fade entirely when system constraints (e.g., lower bounds on reservoir stage and spillway thresholds) inhibit the use of forecasts to inform decisions, particularly during extreme events.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge the comments of two anonymous reviewers that helped to improve this article significantly.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 147 • Issue 7 • July 2021
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 27, 2020
Accepted: Jan 5, 2021
Published online: Apr 19, 2021
Published in print: Jul 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Sep 19, 2021
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