Optimal Design and Operation of River Basin Storage under Hydroclimatic Uncertainty
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 147, Issue 9
Abstract
As populations and economies expand in regions with changing climates, demand for water can quickly grow beyond what natural supply can sustain. This paper proposes to mitigate shortages, such as those that occur along the Lower South Platte River in northeastern Colorado, via a three-step approach: (1) create flow data scenarios, which represent a wide array of hydroclimatic outcomes; (2) use an existing simulation model to process these scenarios in order to locate excess supply and unmet demand both spatially and temporally; and (3) minimize the cost of alleviating identified shortages using a new, multiperiod, two-stage stochastic programming model, which determines reservoir location, size, type, and operation over a 50-year time horizon. Results indicate that demand associated with historical and seasonally shifted scenarios can be satisfied, and unmet demand associated with more challenging reduced-mean runoff scenarios can be mitigated substantially. Furthermore, multiple smaller reservoirs are preferred over a single large reservoir to hedge against these uncertainties.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, and code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial sponsorship of the Veteran’s Administration via the G.I. Bill, as well as a grant from the Colorado Water Conservation Board and the South Platte Basin Roundtable (POGGI-2017-906). They also thank the following individuals for their direction and insights: (1) Carl Brouwer, Northern Water, (2) Sean Conway, South Platte Basin Roundtable, (3) Erica Fleishman, Center for Environmental Management of Military Lands, Colorado State University-Fort Collins, (4) Joe Frank, South Platte Basin Roundtable, (5) Craig Godbout, Colorado Water Conservation Board, (6) Andres Guerra, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, (7) Tissa Illangasekare, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, (8) Sonia Kreidenweis, College of Engineering, Colorado State University-Fort Collins, (9) Emily LoDolce, formerly of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, (10) Steve Malers, Open Waters Foundation, (11) Dinesh Mehta, Department of Computer Science, Colorado School of Mines, (12) Andy Moore, Colorado Water Conservation Board, (13) Dave Nettles, Colorado Department of Natural Resources, (14) Chip Paulson, Stantec, (15) Randy Ray, Central Colorado Water Conservancy District, (16) Brent Schantz, Colorado Department of Natural Resources, (17) Mike Slusher, Davis, Martin, Powell and Associates, Inc., (18) Enrique Triana, formerly of Stantec, (19) Garrett Varra, South Platte Basin Roundtable, (20) Regan Waskom, Colorado Water Institute, Colorado State University-Fort Collins, and (21) Jim Yahn, Colorado Water Conservation Board.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 147 • Issue 9 • September 2021
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Dec 8, 2019
Accepted: Sep 23, 2020
Published online: Jun 29, 2021
Published in print: Sep 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Nov 29, 2021
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