The Nile Water-Food-Energy Nexus under Uncertainty: Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146, Issue 11
Abstract
Achieving a water, food, and energy (WFE) nexus balance through policy interventions is challenging in a transboundary river basin because of the dynamic nature and intersectoral complexity that may cross borders. The Nile basin is shared by a number of riparian countries and is currently experiencing rapid population and economic growth. This has sparked new developments to meet the growing water, food, and energy demands, alleviate poverty, and improve the livelihood in the basin. Such developments could result in basinwide cooperation or trigger conflicts among the riparian countries. A system dynamics model was developed for the entire Nile basin and integrated with the food and energy sectors in Egypt to investigate the future of the WFE nexus with and without the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during filling and subsequent operation using basinwide stochastically generated flows. Different filling rates from 10% to 100% of the average monthly flow are considered during the filling process. Results suggest that the GERD filling and operation would affect the WFE nexus in Egypt, with the impact likely to be significant if the filling process occurred during a dry period. Food production from irrigated agriculture would be reduced by 9%–19% during filling and by about 4% during GERD operation compared with the case without it. The irrigation water supply and hydropower generation in Sudan will be reduced during the filling phase of the GERD, but this is expected to be improved during the dam operation phase as a result of the regulation afforded by the GERD. Ethiopian hydropower generation is expected to be boosted by the GERD during the filling and operation of the dam, adding an average of once GERD comes online. Lastly, the results reveal the urgency of cooperation and coordination among the riparian countries to minimize the regional risks and maximize the regional rewards associated with the GERD.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.
Acknowledgments
The first author would like to express his gratitude to the Ministry of Higher Education (MoHE), Egypt, and the College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences (CEMPS), University of Exeter, UK, for the financial support of his research (Ph.D. Scholarship) and to the University of Exeter for providing the tools and facilities to execute his work. DHI Group provided free licenses of MIKE HYDRO BASIN and MIKE HYDRO RIVER. Dr. Abdulkarim H. Seid, Head of the Water Resources Management Department and his team from ENRTO, Nile Basin Initiative, kindly offered their NB DSS model. The Simile team from Simulistics and Jasper Taylor in particular provided technical support during model building. The authors are also grateful to the three anonymous reviewers whose valuable suggestions improved the quality and clarity of the paper.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146 • Issue 11 • November 2020
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© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Oct 22, 2019
Accepted: May 26, 2020
Published online: Sep 8, 2020
Published in print: Nov 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Feb 8, 2021
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