System Dynamics Simulation Model for Flood Management of the Three Gorges Reservoir
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146, Issue 7
Abstract
The operation of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) during flood seasons is of high importance for ensuring the wellbeing of the people living in the downstream flood-prone areas. Therefore, protecting the downstream areas from flooding is the primary focus of TGR operation. Understanding the interaction between the benefits of flood control and the impacts of flood regulation on the local environment can help improve the operation of the TGR during the flood season. A system dynamics (SD) flood management simulation model of the TGR (SD_TGR) was developed in this study to explore how the operation of the TGR benefits the flood-prone areas and affects the local environment. Scenario-based simulations were performed with the SD_TGR model to understand the interactions between flood control, fish production, sediment flushing, and potential landslide risks under different events during the flood season. Results show that current operation that purely focuses on protecting downstream from flooding causes significant risks of landslides and significantly impairs the production of carp eggs during extreme flood events. The scenario that maintains the natural flow regime for carp spawning results in a substantial increase in the yield of carp eggs at the cost of potentially downstream alert flooding, but it has no impact on downstream critical flooding. The scenario of sediment flushing policy significantly reduces reservoir sediment accumulation, especially during extreme flood events, but its impact on downstream flood warning and critical flooding should not be ignored. The scenario of controlled reservoir drawdown rate reduces the risk of landslides at a considerable degree during small flood events without significantly impairing TGR’s flood control performance.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author by request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (B200202035), Special Fund of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (Grant No. 20195025612), National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFC0402710), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51539003 and 41761134090), National Science Funds for Creative Research Groups of China (No. 51421006), and the China Scholarship Council. University of Western Ontario provided facilities and advisor ship of Professor Simonovic to the first author during their work on the reported research.
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146 • Issue 7 • July 2020
Copyright
©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 28, 2019
Accepted: Dec 31, 2019
Published online: Apr 23, 2020
Published in print: Jul 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Sep 23, 2020
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