Abstract
Due to high in-channel sedimentation rates, the Yellow River Delta of China has changed course frequently in its history, with huge socioeconomic impacts. The following questions are addressed: What is the best timing and location of deliberate avulsions? Can temporary floodways lessen the cost and flooding impacts of avulsion strategies? To address these questions, a simulation-based optimization model is developed that is novel in its integration of economics, hydraulics, and sediment dynamics. The framework considers tradeoffs between the cost of avulsion-mitigation strategies and expected flooding risk. Four design variables (avulsion timing and location, floodway size, and operation rule) are optimized. The results suggest that locating the deliberate avulsion as far upstream as possible reduces total cost. However, the level of reduction of channel capacity at which a deliberate avulsion should be triggered is sensitive to assumed cost parameters. Meanwhile, the optimal floodway size is either the largest possible size or none at all, depending on the frequency of avulsion and floodway cost. Floodway costs influence decisions less than costs of avulsions and flood damage costs.
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Data Availability Statement
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author on request.
Acknowledgments
Support was provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant No. EAR 1427262, “Coastal Socioeconomic and Engineering Sustainability (SEES) Collaborative Research: Morphologic, Socioeconomic, and Engineering Sustainability of Massively Anthropic Coastal Deltas: The Compelling Case of the Huanghe Delta.” The authors thank Hongbo Ma, Andrew Moodie, and Jeff Nittrouer of Rice University and Gary Parker of University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign for advice in building the HH&S model.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146 • Issue 2 • February 2020
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 6, 2019
Accepted: May 22, 2019
Published online: Dec 3, 2019
Published in print: Feb 1, 2020
Discussion open until: May 3, 2020
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