Uncertainty in Bottom-Up Vulnerability Assessments of Water Supply Systems due to Regional Streamflow Generation under Changing Conditions
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146, Issue 2
Abstract
Changing natural streamflow conditions apply pressure on water supply systems globally. Understanding potential vulnerabilities using IPCC-endorsed top-down impact assessments, however, is limited due to uncertainties in climate and/or hydrological models. In recent years, bottom-up stress tests have been proposed to avoid some of the uncertainties in top-down assessments, but the uncertainty in bottom-up approaches and its impact on vulnerability assessments are poorly understood. Here, we aim at addressing uncertainties that originate from synthetic realizations of regional streamflow with which the system vulnerability is mapped and assessed. Four regional streamflow generation schemes are used to form alternative hypotheses for performing a bottom-up impact assessment in a large-scale water supply system under changing conditions. Our findings suggest that despite having different levels of realism, none of the schemes can dominate others in terms of reproducing all historical streamflow characteristics considered. There can also be significant differences in the results of impact assessments, particularly in terms of variability in long-term streamflow characteristics and system performance. These differences cause uncertainty in assessing risk in system performance and stress-response relationships under changing conditions.
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Data Availability Statement
Historical streamflow data for the North and South Saskatchewan Rivers have been obtained through Water Survey of Canada’s National Water Data archive available at https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/water-overview/quantity/monitoring/survey/data-products-services/national-archive-hydat.html. The weekly including the scenarios of water demands and operational policies was developed by the third author and is based on the monthly operational system model owned by the Saskatchewan Water Security Agency. The data used in can be obtained through direct communication with the third author.
Acknowledgments
Financial support for this study was provided by multiple sources including Concordia University through the Faculty of Engineering and Computer Science’s start-up, FRS, and GSSP funds; Concordia University’s Strategic Hire and Excellence Entrance Awards grants; as well as the NSERC Discovery Grant (Grant No.: RGPIN/5470-2016). We would like to appreciate the extremely constructive comments received from the Editorial Board, Associate Editor, and three anonymous reviewers who helped us to enormously improve this work.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146 • Issue 2 • February 2020
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©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Aug 16, 2018
Accepted: May 22, 2019
Published online: Nov 26, 2019
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Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.