Using Agent-Based Modeling for Water Resources Management in the Bakken Region
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146, Issue 1
Abstract
Most agent-based model (ABM) applications in water resources management and planning relied on hypothetical systems for method testing and policy analysis. Although these ABM studies can help provide guidance for evaluating or designing water management policies in an exploratory way, there still exists a gap in translating the numerical results from hypothetical studies into the implementation of water policies in the real world. This study aimed to fill this gap. In this paper, we developed an ABM for the water depot–based water allocation system that has emerged to distribute a large quantity of freshwater for shale oil development activities at the Bakken (North Dakota). The ABM was then calibrated against recorded annual water uses from 2007 to 2014 before it was used to evaluate water policies and to devise effective water management strategies in the Bakken region. Our analysis shows that the authorization of the Western Area Water Supply Project, implementation of the In Lieu of Irrigation program, and accelerated issuance of temporary surface water permits were the most effective water policies adopted during the recent oil boom in terms of mitigating water shortage for hydraulic fracturing and limiting permit violations. The ideal range of the proposed permit-to-use ratio in the Bakken region should be 3.0–7.0. The use of agent-based modeling for water management in the Bakken region can help other policymakers and managers develop water policies to address increased industrial water demands associated with the unconventional oil and gas development in their regions.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author by request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation [Award No. ICER-1413954]. We gratefully acknowledge technical assistance from Dr. Yi-Chen E. Yang and English language service from Mrs. Debra Baer. The authors would like to thank the editor, the associate editor, and the three reviewers for their invaluable comments and suggestions that contributed to improving the original manuscript. Zhulu Lin is an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth Systems Science and Policy of the University of North Dakota.
References
Akhbari, M., and N. S. Grigg. 2013. “A framework for an agent-based model to manage water resources conflicts.” Water Resour. Manage. 27 (11): 4039–4052. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0394-0.
An, L. 2012. “Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: Review of agent-based models.” Ecol. Model. 229 (Mar): 25–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.07.010.
An, L., A. Zvoleff, J. Liu, and W. Axinn. 2014. “Agent-based modeling in coupled human and natural systems (CHANS): Lessons from a comparative analysis.” Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 104 (4): 723–745. https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2014.910085.
Athanasiadis, I. N., A. K. Mentes, P. A. Mitkas, and Y. A. Mylopoulos. 2005. “A hybrid agent-based model for estimating residential water demand.” Simulation 81 (3): 175–187. https://doi.org/10.1177/0037549705053172.
Becu, N., P. Perez, A. Walker, O. Barreteau, and C. Le Page. 2003. “Agent based simulation of a small catchment water management in northern Thailand: Description of the CATCHSCAPE model.” Ecol. Model. 170 (2–3): 319–331. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00236-9.
Berglund, E. Z. 2015. “Using agent-based modeling for water resources planning and management.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 141 (11): 04015025. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000544.
Bonabeau, E. 2002. “Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems.” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99 (S3): 7280–7287. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.082080899.
Bousquet, F., and C. Le Page. 2004. “Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: A review.” Ecol. Model. 176 (3–4): 313–332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.01.011.
Chu, J., C. Wang, J. Chen, and H. Wang. 2009. “Agent-based residential water use behavior simulation and policy implications: A case-study in Beijing City.” Water Resour. Manage. 23 (15): 3267–3295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9433-2.
Crooks, A., C. Castle, and M. Batty. 2008. “Key challenges in agent-based modelling for geo-spatial simulation.” Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 32 (6): 417–430. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2008.09.004.
Ding, N., R. Erfani, H. Mokhtar, and T. Erfani. 2016. “Agent based modelling for water resource allocation in the transboundary Nile River.” Water 8 (4): 139. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8040139.
Filatova, T., P. H. Verburg, D. C. Parker, and C. A. Stannard. 2013. “Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems: Challenges and prospects.” Environ. Modell. Software 45 (Jul): 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.03.017.
Fischer, K. 2013. Groundwater flow model inversion to assess water availability in the Fox Hills–Hell Creek aquifer. Bismarck, North Dakota: North Dakota State Water Commission.
Galán, J. M., A. López-Paredes, and R. del Olmo. 2009. “An agent-based model for domestic water management in Valladolid metropolitan area.” Water Resour. Res. 45 (5): W05401. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006536.
Gaswirth, S. B., et al. 2013. “Assessment of undiscovered oil resources in the Bakken and Three Forks Formations, Williston Province, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota.” Accessed June 2018. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3013/.
Giuliani, M., A. Castelletti, F. Amigoni, and X. Cai. 2015. “Multiagent systems and distributed constraint reasoning for regulatory mechanism design in water management.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 141 (4): 04014068. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000463.
Grimm, V., et al. 2006a. “A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models.” Ecol. Model. 198 (1–2): 115–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.04.023.
Grimm, V., U. Berger, D. L. DeAngelis, J. G. Polhill, J. Giske, and S. F. Railsback. 2006b. “The ODD protocol: A review and first update.” Ecol. Model. 221 (23): 2760–2768. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.08.019.
Harms, R. 2010. “North Dakota water resources report.” Accessed November 2017. http://library.nd.gov/statedocs/WaterCommission/NDWaterResourcesReport20110908.pdf.
Hearne, R. R., and F. Fernando. 2016. “Strategies for community and industry water management in the oil producing region of North Dakota.” Water 8 (8): 331. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8080331.
Horner, R. M., C. B. Harto, R. B. Jackson, E. R. Lowry, A. R. Brandt, T. W. Yeskoo, D. J. Murphy, and C. E. Clark. 2016. “Water use and management in the Bakken shale oil play in North Dakota.” Environ. Sci. Technol. 50 (6): 3275–3282. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b04079.
Hu, Y., and S. Beattie. 2019. “Role of heterogeneous behavioral factors in an agent-based model of crop choice and groundwater irrigation.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 145 (2): 04018100. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001033.
Inalhan, G., D. M. Stipanović, and C. J. Tomlin. 2002. “Decentralized optimization, with application to multiple aircraft coordination.” In Proc., 41st IEEE Conf. on Decision and Control, 1147–1155. New York: IEEE.
Johnson, J. G., and J. R. Busemeyer. 2010. “Decision making under risk and uncertainty.” WIREs Cognit. Sci. 1 (9–10): 736–749. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcs.76.
Kandiah, V. K., E. Z. Berglund, and A. R. Binder. 2016. “Cellular automata modeling framework for urban water reuse planning and management.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 142 (12): 04016054. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000696.
Kock, B. E. 2008. “Agent-based models of socio-hydrological systems for exploring the institutional dynamics of water resources conflict.” M.S. thesis. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Kotz, C., and H. Hiessl. 2005. “Analysis of system innovation in urban water infrastructure systems: An agent-based modelling approach.” Water Sci. Technol. Water Supply 5 (2): 135–144. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2005.0030.
Kusnetz, N. 2012. “The Bakken oil play spurs a booming business in water.” Accessed November 2017. http://www.hcn.org/issues/44.13/the-bakken-oil-play-spurs-a-booming-business-in-water.
Lin, Z., T. Lin, S. H. Lim, M. H. Hove, and W. M. Schuh. 2018. “Impacts of Bakken shale oil development on regional water uses and supply.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 54 (1): 225–239. https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12605.
Liu, Y., F. Sun, S. Zeng, K. Lauzon, and X. Dong. 2016. “Integrated model driven by agent-based water end-use forecasting to evaluate the performance of water and wastewater pipeline systems.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 142 (10): 04016035. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000672.
Macal, C. M., and M. J. North. 2010. “Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation.” J. Simul. 4 (3): 151–162. https://doi.org/10.1057/jos.2010.3.
Montalto, F. A., T. A. Bartrand, A. M. Waldman, K. A. Travaline, C. H. Loomis, C. McAfee, J. M. Geldi, G. J. Riggall, and L. M. Boles. 2013. “Decentralised green infrastructure: The importance of stakeholder behaviour in determining spatial and temporal outcomes.” Struct. Infrastruct. E. 9 (12): 1187–1205. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2012.671834.
Monticino, M., M. Acevedo, B. Callicott, T. Cogdill, and C. Lindquist. 2007. “Coupled human and natural systems: A multi-agent-based approach.” Environ. Modell. Software 22 (5): 656–663. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.12.017.
NDSWC (North Dakota State Water Commission). 2014. “A reference guide to North Dakota waters.” Accessed May 2017. http://www.swc.nd.gov/pdfs/water_reference_guide.pdf.
Noël, P. H., and X. Cai. 2017. “On the role of individuals in models of coupled human and natural systems: Lessons from a case study in the Republican River Basin.” Environ. Modell. Software 92 (Jun): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.02.010.
Pollastro, R. M., T. A. Cook, L. N. R. Roberts, C. J. Schenk, M. D. Lewan, L. O. Anna, S. B. Gaswirth, P. G. Lillis, T. R. Klett, and R. R. Charpentier. 2008. Assessment of undiscovered oil resources in the Devonian-Mississippian Bakken Formation, Williston Basin Province, Montana and North Dakota, 2008. Reston, VA: USGS.
Saxowsky, D. 2015. “North Dakota water law: Legal doctrine.” Accessed January 2016. https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/ndwaterlaw/acquiringwater/legaldoctrines.
Schuh, W. M. 2010. Water appropriation requirements, current water use, & water availability for energy industries in North Dakota: A 2010 summary. Bismarck, North Dakota: North Dakota State Water Commission.
Schwarz, N., and A. Ernst. 2009. “Agent-based modeling of the diffusion of environmental innovations: An empirical approach.” Tech. Forecasting Soc. Change 76 (4): 497–511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.03.024.
Smajgl, A., D. G. Brown, D. Valbuena, and M. G. A. Huigen. 2011. “Empirical characterisation of agent behaviours in socio-ecological systems.” Environ. Modell. Software 26 (7): 837–844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.02.011.
Tourigny, A., and Y. Filion. 2019. “Sensitivity analysis of an agent-based model used to simulate the spread of low-flow fixtures for residential water conservation and evaluate energy savings in a Canadian water distribution system.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 145 (1): 04018086. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001015.
USEPA. 2016. Hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas: Impacts from the hydraulic fracturing water cycle on drinking water resources in the United States. Washington, DC: Office of Research and Development.
Xiao, Y., L. Fang, and K. W. Hipel. 2018. “Agent-based modeling approach to investigating the impact of water demand management.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 144 (3): 04018006. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000907.
Yang, Y. E., X. Cai, and D. Stipanović. 2009. “A decentralized optimization algorithm for multiagent system-based watershed management.” Water Resour. Res. 45 (8): W08430. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007634.
Yang, Y. E., J. Zhao, and X. Cai. 2012. “Decentralized optimization method for water allocation management in the Yellow River Basin.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 138 (4): 313–325. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000199.
Zhao, J., X. Cai, and Z. Wang. 2013. “Comparing administered and market-based water allocation systems through a consistent agent-based modeling framework.” J. Environ. Manage. 123 (Jul): 120–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.03.005.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 146 • Issue 1 • January 2020
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 20, 2018
Accepted: May 22, 2019
Published online: Oct 24, 2019
Published in print: Jan 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Mar 24, 2020
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.