Real-Time Water Distribution System Hydraulic Modeling Using Prior Demand Information by Formal Bayesian Approach
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145, Issue 12
Abstract
Real-time water distribution system (WDS) hydraulic models are used in water utilities to facilitate the planning and operation of the water distribution system. As a critical model input, spatiotemporally varying nodal water demands significantly affect the performance and applicability of such WDS models. Thus, real-time nodal demands must be calibrated for reliability before their use. The main difficulty for real-time calibration is the lack of observed data sufficient to determine thousands of nodal demands accurately in a network. To address the difficulty, this study proposes a formal Bayesian approach to determine nodal demands in WDS hydraulic modeling by explicitly taking prior water demand information into account and coupling more information to constrain the nodal water demand modeling. Application of the approach on a simple hypothetical network and a field network in a city of eastern Zhejiang Province, China demonstrates that by adding prior information, the nodal demand can be uniquely determined in real time. The approach limits uncertainty propagation and improves the robustness of the real-time model calibration and analysis.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available in a repository or online in accordance with funder data retention policies (https://github.com/ShipengChu/Real-time-code-for-case-1; https://github.com/ShipengChu/Real-time-code-for-case-2).
Acknowledgments
The present research is funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFC0400600), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51478417), Science and Technology Program of Zhejiang Province (Nos. 2017C33174 and 2015C33007), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities. Although not directly funded by the USEPA, this paper has also been subjected to the Agency’s administrative review and has been approved for external publication. Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency; therefore, no official endorsement should be inferred.
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145 • Issue 12 • December 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 2, 2018
Accepted: Apr 19, 2019
Published online: Sep 30, 2019
Published in print: Dec 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Feb 29, 2020
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