Decision Analysis for Expansion of Mahaweli Multipurpose Reservoir System in Sri Lanka
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145, Issue 9
Abstract
Water resource management is a complex process involving multiple stakeholders with different interests and different expertise. Typically, planning and management of water resources incorporate the analysis of social, economic, and environmental impacts as well as the consideration of hydrology and energy aspects. This study demonstrated the applicability of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods for the planning and management of a system of multipurpose reservoirs given competing development goals. We applied the methodology to the Mahaweli multipurpose project of Sri Lanka. The economic, social, and environmental planning goals were evaluated using multicriteria decision analysis techniques with multiple attributes measured in several units and trade-off weights elicited from multiple decision makers. Results showed that decision makers tend to prioritize objectives according to their institutional affiliations; however, they also demonstrate an understanding of the importance of other, less preferred objectives. The best alternative chosen by the models performed well across all objectives, decision makers, and MCDA methods. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the best alternative under varying input parameters.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This research is part of a multidisciplinary research initiative called Adaptation to Precipitation Trends in Sri Lanka (ADAPT-SL) at the Vanderbilt Institute for Energy and Environment (VIEE). The work is supported by WSC Program Grant No. NSF-EAR 1204685.
References
Abrishamchi, A., A. Ebrahimian, M. Tajrishi, and M. A. Mariño. 2005. “Case study: Application of multicriteria decision making to urban water supply.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 131 (4): 326–335. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2005)131:4(326).
Afshar, A., M. A. Mariño, M. Saadatpour, and A. Afshar. 2011. “Fuzzy TOPSIS multi-criteria decision analysis applied to Karun reservoirs system.” Water Resour. Manage. 25 (2): 545–563. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9713-x.
Ahmadi, M., M. Arabi, D. G. Fontane, and B. A. Engel. 2015. “Application of multicriteria decision analysis with a priori knowledge to identify optimal nonpoint source pollution control plans.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 141 (2): 04014054. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000455.
Benayoun, R., B. Roy, and S. Sussman. 1966. ELECTRE: Une Méthode Pour Guider Le Choix En Présence de Points de Vue Multiples. [In French.].
Cai, X., L. Lasdon, and A. M. Michelsen. 2004. “Group decision making in water resources planning using multiple objective analysis.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 130 (1): 4–14. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:1(4).
Calizaya, A., O. Meixner, L. Bengtsson, and R. Berndtsson. 2010. “Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for integrated water resources management (IWRM) in the Lake Poopo Basin, Bolivia.” Water Resour. Manage. 24 (10): 2267–2289. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9551-x.
Ceylon Electricity Board. 2015. Long term generation expansion plan 2015-2034. Accessed September 1, 2017. http://pucsl.gov.lk/english/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Long-Term-Generation-Plan-2015-2034-PUCSL.pdf.
Clemen, R. T., and T. Reilly. 2001. Making hard decisions with decision tools. Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury Thomson Learning.
Cole, J., S. Sharvelle, D. Fourness, N. Grigg, L. Roesner, and J. Haukaas. 2018. “Centralized and decentralized strategies for dual water supply: Case study.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 144 (1): 05017017. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000856.
Cunha, A. A. R., and D. C. Morais. 2012. “Proposed multicriteria model for group decision support in water resources planning.” In Proc., 2012 IEEE Int. Conf. on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC) 617–22. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE.
De Montis, A., P. De Toro, B. Droste-Franke, I. Omann, and S. Stagl. 2004. “Assessing the quality of different MCDA methods.” In Alternatives for environmental valuation, 115–149. London: Routledge.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 2017. “Water, food and energy.” Accessed September 21, 2017. http://www.unwater.org/water-facts/water-food-and-energy/.
Figueira, J., V. Mousseau, and B. Roy. 2005. “ELECTRE methods.” In Multiple criteria decision analysis: State of the art surveys, 133–53. Springer: New York.
Figueira, J. R., S. Greco, B. Roy, and R. Słowiński. 2013. “An overview of ELECTRE methods and their recent extensions.” J. Multi-Criteria Decis. Anal. 20 (1–2): 61–85. https://doi.org/10.1002/mcda.1482.
Fishburn, P. C. 1968. “Utility theory.” Manage. Sci. 14 (5): 335–378. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.14.5.335.
Flug, M., H. L. Seitz, and J. F. Scott. 2005. “Multicriteria decision analysis applied to Glen Canyon Dam.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 126 (5): 270–276. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2000)126:5(270).
Giupponi, C., and A. Sgobbi. 2013. “Decision support systems for water resources management in developing countries: Learning from experiences in Africa.” Water 5 (2): 798–818. https://doi.org/10.3390/w5020798.
Govindan, K., and M. B. Jepsen. 2016. “ELECTRE: A comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 250 (1): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.019.
Hajkowicz, S., and K. Collins. 2007. “A review of multiple criteria analysis for water resource planning and management.” Water Resour. Manage. 21 (9): 1553–1566. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9112-5.
Hajkowicz, S., and A. Higgins. 2008. “A comparison of multiple criteria analysis techniques for water resource management.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 184 (1): 255–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.10.045.
Hobbs, B. F., and P. Meier. 2000. Energy decisions and the environment: A guide to the use of multicriteria methods. Boston: Kluwer Academic.
Huang, I. B., J. Keisler, and I. Linkov. 2011. “Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: Ten years of applications and trends.” Sci. Total Environ. 409 (19): 3578–3594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.06.022.
Hyde, K. M., H. R. Maier, and C. B. Colby. 2004. “Reliability-based approach to multicriteria decision analysis for water resources.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 130 (6): 429–438. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:6(429).
Kang, B., J. H. Lee, E. S. Chung, D. Kim, and Y. Do Kim. 2013. “A sensitivity analysis approach of multi-attribute decision making technique to rank flood mitigation projects.” KSCE J. Civ. Eng. 17 (6): 1529–1539. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-013-0360-7.
Keeney, R. L., and H. Raiffa. 1976. Decisions with multiple objectives; preferences and value trade-offs. New York: Wiley.
Kim, H. Y., D. G. Fontane, P. Y. Julien, and J. H. Lee. 2018. “Multiobjective analysis of the sedimentation behind Sangju Weir, South Korea.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 144 (2): 05017019. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000851.
Li, T. H. Y., S. Thomas Ng, and M. Skitmore. 2016. “Modeling multi-stakeholder multi-objective decisions during public participation in major infrastructure and construction projects: A decision rule approach.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 142 (3): 04015087. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001066.
Manthrithilake, H., and B. S. Liyanagama. 2012. “Simulation model for participatory decision making: Water allocation policy implementation in Sri Lanka.” Water Int. 37 (4): 478–491. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2012.708602.
Marzouk, M. M. 2011. “ELECTRE III model for value engineering applications.” Autom. Constr. 20 (5): 596–600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2010.11.026.
Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources Management. 2013. Multi-sector water resources planning—Component 3: Dam safety water resources planning project, updated Mahaweli water resources development plan. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources Management. 2014. Technical assistance consultants report, Sri Lanka water resources development investment program. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment. 2016. Mahaweli water security investment program, phase 2 route selection report. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Mutikanga, H. E., S. K. Sharma, and K. Vairavamoorthy. 2011. “Multi-criteria decision analysis: A strategic planning tool for water loss management.” Water Resour. Manage. 25 (14): 3947–3969. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9896-9.
Opricovic, S. 2009. “A compromise solution in water resources planning.” Water Resour. Manage. 23 (8): 1549–1561. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9340-y.
Perrone, D., and G. Hornberger. 2016. “Frontiers of the food–energy–water trilemma: Sri Lanka as a microcosm of tradeoffs.” Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (1): 014005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014005.
Raj, P. A., and D. Nagesh Kumar. 1996. “Ranking of river basin alternatives using ELECTRE.” Hydrol. Sci. J. 41(5: 697–713. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669609491540.
Räsänen, T. A., O. M. Joffre, P. Someth, C. T. Thanh, M. Keskinen, and M. Kummu. 2015. “Model-based assessment of water, food, and energy trade-offs in a cascade of multipurpose reservoirs: Case study of the Sesan Tributary of the Mekong River.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 141 (1): 05014007. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000459.
Rogers, M., and M. Bruen. 1998. “Choosing realistic values of indifference, preference and veto thresholds for use with environmental criteria within ELECTRE.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 107 (3): 542–551. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(97)00175-6.
Rogers, M., and M. Bruen. 2000. “Using ELECTRE III to choose route for Dublin Port motorway.” J. Transp. Eng. 126 (4): 313–323. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2000)126:4(313).
Roy, B. 1991. “The outranking foundations approach and the methods.” In Vol. 31 of Theory and decision, 49–73. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic.
Roy, B., and D. Bouyssou. 1986. “Comparison of two decision-aid models applied to a nuclear power plant siting example.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 25 (2): 200–215. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(86)90086-X.
USEPA. 2013. The importance of water to the U.S. economy. Washington, DC: USEPA.
van Herwijnen, M. 2010. “Multi-attribute value theory (MAVT).” Accessed December 15, 2016. http://www.ivm.vu.nl/en/Images/MCA1_tcm234-161527.pdf.
WWAP (United Nations World Water Assessment Programme). 2014. The United Nations world water development report 2014: Water and energy. Paris: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.
Yang, Y. E., C. Ringler, C. Brown, and M. A. H. Mondal. 2016. “Modeling the agricultural water: Energy: Food nexus in the Indus River Basin, Pakistan.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 142 (12): 04016062. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000710.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 8, 2017
Accepted: Jan 29, 2019
Published online: Jul 2, 2019
Published in print: Sep 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Dec 2, 2019
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.