Model Selection Based on Sectoral Application Scale for Increased Value of Hydroclimate-Prediction Information
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145, Issue 5
Abstract
Advance predictions of seasonal precipitation may provide information to aid water resource management decisions in various sectors. Yet, a disconnect between the spatial scale upon which skillful predictions are issued and the sectoral decision-making scale renders current predictive information inadequate in many cases. This study explores season-ahead precipitation prediction skill for a local region in the Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, to better understand how model structure may serve to provide more skillful and valuable predictive information to the end user. Statistical downscaling of global dynamic and regional empirical models and development of a high-resolution, locally tailored statistical model indicate that model structure and prediction skill are inextricably linked. Statistical approaches specific to the local region show higher prediction skill at the sectoral decision-making scale compared with dynamic approaches, offering the potential to aid local communities in many regions that are currently vulnerable to highly variable spatial precipitation patterns. Linking the local-scale precipitation predictions with a simple reservoir model in Ethiopia illustrates application of local-scale predictive information for enhanced value in planning and management decisions.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1545874. The authors acknowledge the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia and the Abay Basin Authority, in particular Girmachew Addisu, for sharing data.
References
Barnston, A. G. 1992. “Correspondence among the correlation, RMSE, and Heidke forecast verification measures; refinement of the Heidke score.” Weather Forecast. 7 (4): 699–709. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007%3C0699:CATCRA%3E2.0.CO;2.
Bekele, F. 1997. “Ethiopian use of ENSO information in its seasonal forecasts.” Accessed March 2, 1997. http:// www.bradford.ac.uk/research-old/ijas/ijasno2/bekele.html.
Birhanu, K., T. Alamirew, M. Olumana Dinka, S. Ayalew, and D. Aklog. 2014. “Optimizing reservoir operation policy using chance constraint nonlinear programming for Koga Irrigation Dam, Ethiopia.” Water Resour. Manage. 28 (14): 4957–4970. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0770-4.
Black, E. 2005. “The relationship between Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature and East African rainfall.” Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 363 (1826): 43–47. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2004.1474.
Black, E., J. M. Slingo, and K. R. Sperber. 2003. “An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST.” Mon. Weather Rev. 131 (1): 74–94. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131%3C0074:AOSOTR%3E2.0.CO;2.
Block, P., and L. Goddard. 2012. “Statistical and dynamical climate predictions to guide water resources in Ethiopia.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 138 (3): 287–298. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000181.
Block, P., and B. Rajagopalan. 2007. “Interannual variability and ensemble forecast of upper Blue Nile basin Kiremt season precipitation.” J. Hydrometeorol. 8 (3): 327–343. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM580.1.
Bogner, K., K. Liechti, and M. Zappa. 2016. “Post-processing of stream flows in Switzerland with an emphasis on low flows and floods.” Water 8 (4): 115. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8040115.
Camberlin, P. 1997. “Rainfall anomalies in the source region of the Nile and their connection with the Indian summer monsoon.” J. Clim. 10 (6): 1380–1392. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010%3C1380:RAITSR%3E2.0.CO;2.
Camberlin, P., and N. Philippon. 2002. “The East African March–May rainy season: Associated atmospheric dynamics and predictability over the 1968–97 period.” J. Clim. 15 (9): 1002–1019. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3C1002:TEAMMR%3E2.0.CO;2.
Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, A. J. Busalacchi, and M. A. Cane. 2017. “An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting: Implications for predictability.” Science 269 (5231): 1699–1702. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.269.5231.1699.
Cheneka, B. R., S. Brienen, K. Fröhlich, S. Asharaf, and B. Früh. 2016. “Searching for an added value of precipitation in downscaled seasonal hindcasts over East Africa: COSMO-CLM forced by MPI-ESM.” Adv. Meteorol. 2016: 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/4348285.
Clarke, A. J., and S. Van Gorder. 1999. “The connection between the boreal spring Southern Oscillation persistence barrier and biennial variability.” J. Clim. 12 (2): 610–620. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012%3C0610:TCBTBS%3E2.0.CO;2.
Coelho, C. A. S., S. Pezzulli, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and D. B. Stephenson. 2004. “Forecast calibration and combination: A simple Bayesian approach for ENSO.” J. Clim. 17 (7): 1504–1516. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C1504:FCACAS%3E2.0.CO;2.
Conway, D. 2000. “The climate and hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River.” Geogr. J. 166 (1): 49–62. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4959.2000.tb00006.x.
Conway, D. 2005. “From headwater tributaries to international river: Observing and adapting to climate variability and change in the Nile basin.” Global Environ. Change 15 (2): 99–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.01.003.
Craven, P., and G. Wahba. 1979. “Smoothing noisy data with spline functions: Estimating the correct degree of smoothing by the method of generalized cross-validation.” Numer. Math. 31 (4): 377–403. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01404567.
Delorit, J., E. C. Gonzalez Ortuya, and P. Block. 2017. “A framework for advancing streamflow and water allocation forecasts in the Elqui Valley, Chile.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 21 (9): 1–30. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-58.
Diro, G. T., D. I. F. Grimes, and E. Black. 2011a. “Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature. Part I: Observation and modelling.” Clim. Dyn. 37 (1): 103–119. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8.
Diro, G. T., D. I. F. Grimes, and E. Black. 2011b. “Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature. Part II: Seasonal forecasting.” Clim. Dyn. 37 (1): 121–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0896-x.
Diro, G. T., D. I. F. Grimes, E. Black, A. O’Neill, and E. Pardo-Iguzquiza. 2009. “Evaluation of reanalysis rainfall estimates over Ethiopia.” Int. J. Climatol. 29 (1): 67–78. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1699.
Diro, G. T., A. M. Tompkins, and X. Bi. 2012. “Dynamical downscaling of ECMWF ensemble seasonal forecasts over East Africa with RegCM3.” J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 117 (16): 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016997.
Droogers, P., and R. G. Allen. 2002. “Estimating reference evapotranspiration under inaccurate data conditions.” Irrig. Drain. Syst. 16 (1): 33–45. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015508322413.
Eklundh, L., and P. Pilesjö. 1990. “Regionalization and spatial estimation of Ethiopian mean annual rainfall.” Int. J. Climatol. 10 (5): 473–494. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370100505.
Elagib, N. A., and M. M. Elhag. 2011. “Major climate indicators of ongoing drought in Sudan.” J. Hydrol. 409 (3–4): 612–625. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.08.047.
Eriksson, S. 2013. Water quality in the Koga Irrigation Project, Ethiopia: A snapshot of general quality parameters. Uppsala, Sweden: Dept. of Earth Sciences, Air, Water, and Landscape Science, Uppsala Univ.
Folland, C. K., T. N. Palmer, and D. E. Parker. 1986. “Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901-85.” Nature 320 (6063): 602–607. https://doi.org/10.1038/320602a0.
Fowler, H. J., S. Blenkinshop, and C. Tebaldi. 2007. “Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: Recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling.” Int. J. Climatol. 27 (12): 1547–1578. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1556.
Funk, C., et al. 2015. “The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—A new environmental record for monitoring extremes.” Sci. Data 2 (150066): 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66.
Funk, C., A. Hoell, S. Shukla, I. Bladé, B. Liebmann, J. B. Roberts, F. R. Robertson, and G. Husak. 2014. “Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18 (12): 4965–4978. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014.
Gebrehiwot, S. G., A. Taye, and K. Bishop. 2010. “Forest cover and stream flow in a headwater of the Blue Nile: Complementing observational data analysis with community perception.” Ambio 39 (4): 284–294. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0047-y.
George, H. H., and Z. A. Samani. 1985. “Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature.” Appl. Eng. Agric. 1 (2): 96–99. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.26773.
Giannini, A., M. Biasutti, and M. M. Verstraete. 2008. “A climate model-based review of drought in the Sahel: Desertification, the re-greening and climate change.” Global Planet. Change 64 (3–4): 119–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.05.004.
Gilles, J. L., and C. Valdivia. 2009. “Local forecast communication in the Altiplano.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90 (1): 85–92. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2183.1.
Gissila, T., E. Black, D. I. F. Grimes, and J. M. Slingo. 2004. “Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains.” Int. J. Climatol. 24 (11): 1345–1358. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1078.
Gleixner, S., N. S. Keenlyside, T. D. Demissie, F. Counillon, Y. Wang, and E. Viste. 2017. “Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models.” Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (11): 114016. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cfa.
Goddard, L., and N. E. Graham. 1999. “Importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall anomalies over eastern and southern Africa.” J. Geophys. Res. 104 (D16): 19099–19116. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900326.
Goddard, L., S. J. Mason, S. E. Zebiak, C. F. Ropelewski, R. Basher, and M. A. Cane. 2001. “Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions.” Int. J. Climatol. 21 (9): 1111–1152. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.636.
Hargreaves, G. H., and Z. A. Samani. 1982. “Estimating potential evapotranspiration.” J. Irrig. Drain. Div. 108 (IR3): 225–230.
Hastenrath, S., D. Polzin, and P. Camberlin. 2004. “Exploring the predictability of the ‘short rains’ at the coast of East Africa.” Int. J. Climatol. 24 (11): 1333–1343. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1070.
Helsel, D. R., and R. M. Hirsch. 1992. Statistical methods in water resources. Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier.
Hoerling, M., J. Hurrell, J. Eischeid, and A. Phillips. 2006. “Detection and attribution of twentieth-century northern and southern African rainfall change.” J. Clim. 19 (16): 3989–4008. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3842.1.
Hsu, W. R., and A. H. Murphy. 1986. “The attributes diagram: A geometrical framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts.” Int. J. Forecast. 2 (3): 285–293. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(86)90048-8.
Jan van Oldenborgh, G., M. A. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, T. N. Stockdale, and D. L. T. Anderson. 2005. “Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform statistical ENSO forecast models over the last 15 years?” J. Clim. 18 (16): 3240–3249. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3420.1.
Jin, E. K., et al. 2008. “Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models.” Clim. Dyn. 31 (6): 647–664. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3.
Jury, M. R. 2014. “Evaluation of coupled model forecasts of Ethiopian highlands summer climate.” In Advances in meteorology, 1–9. Berlin: Springer.
Kaiser, H. F. 1960. “The application of electronic computers to factor analysis.” Educ. Psychol. Meas. 20 (1): 141–151. https://doi.org/10.1177/001316446002000116.
Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, and D. Deaven. 1996. “The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77 (3): 437–471. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077%3C0437:TNYRP%3E2.0.CO;2.
Kay, J. E., et al. 2015. “The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96 (8): 1333–1349. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1.
Kirtman, B. P., et al. 2014. “The North American multimodel ensemble: Phase-1 seasonal-to-interannual prediction; phase-2 toward developing intraseasonal prediction.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 95 (4): 585–601. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.
Korecha, D., and A. G. Barnston. 2007. “Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia.” Mon. Weather Rev. 135 (2): 628–650. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3304.1.
Korecha, D., and A. Sorteberg. 2013. “Validation of operational seasonal rainfall forecast in Ethiopia.” Water Resour. Res. 49 (11): 7681–7697. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR013760.
Latif, M., D. Dommenget, M. Dima, and A. Grötzner. 1999. “The role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature in forcing East African rainfall anomalies during December-January 1997/98.” J. Clim. 12 (12): 3497–3504. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012%3C3497:TROIOS%3E2.0.CO;2.
Lerch, S., T. L. Thorarinsdottir, F. Ravazzolo, and T. Gneiting. 2017. “Forecaster’s dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation.” Stat. Sci. 32 (1): 106–127. https://doi.org/10.1214/16-STS588.
Li, H., L. Luo, E. F. Wood, and J. Schaake. 2009. “The role of initial conditions and forcing uncertainties in seasonal hydrologic forecasting.” J. Geophys. Res. 114 (D4): D04114. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010969.
Lins, H. F. 1985. “Interannual streamflow variability in the United States based on principal components.” Water Resour. Res. 21 (5): 691–701. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR021i005p00691.
Lu, J., and T. L. Delworth. 2005. “Oceanic forcing of the late 20th century Sahel drought.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (22): 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023316.
Lupo, A., and W. Kininmonth. 2013. “Global climate models and their limitations.” In Climate change reconsidered II: Physical science, 9–147. Arlington Heights, IL: Heartland Institute.
Maraun, D. 2013. “Bias correction, quantile mapping, and downscaling: Revisiting the inflation issue.” J. Clim. 26 (6): 2137–2143. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00821.1.
Mortensen, E., S. Wu, M. Notaro, S. Vavrus, R. Montgomery, J. De Pierola, C. Sanchez, and P. Block. 2018. “Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 22 (1): 287–303. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-287-2018.
Mwale, D., and T. Y. Gan. 2005. “Wavelet analysis of variability, teleconnectivity, and predictability of the September-November East African rainfall.” J. Appl. Meteorol. 44 (2): 256–269. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2195.1.
Nikulin, G., et al. 2018. “Dynamical and statistical downscaling of a global seasonal hindcast in eastern Africa.” Clim. Serv. 9: 72–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2017.11.003.
Ntale, H. K., T. Y. Gan, and D. Mwale. 2003. “Prediction of East African seasonal rainfall using simplex canonical correlation analysis.” J. Clim. 16 (12): 2105–2112. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016%3C2105:POEASR%3E2.0.CO;2.
Obled, C., G. Bontron, and R. Garçon. 2002. “Quantitative precipitation forecasts: A statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach.” Atmos. Res. 63 (3–4): 303–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(02)00038-8.
Ogutu, G. E. O., W. H. P. Franssen, I. Supit, P. Omondi, and R. W. A. Hutjes. 2017. “Skill of ECMWF system-4 ensemble seasonal climate forecasts for East Africa.” Int. J. Climatol. 37 (5): 2734–2756. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4876.
Pennesi, K. 2007. “Improving forecast communication: Linguistic and cultural considerations.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88 (7): 1033–1044. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-7-1033.
Pennesi, K. 2011. “Making forecasts meaningful: Explanations of problematic predictions in Northeast Brazil.” Weather Clim. Soc. 3 (2): 90–105. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-10-05005.1.
Pennesi, K. 2013. “Predictions as Lies in Ceará, Brazil: The intersection of two cultural models.” Anthropol. Q. 86 (3): 759–789. https://doi.org/10.1353/anq.2013.0038.
Philippon, N., P. Camberlin, and N. Fauchereau. 2002. “Empirical predictability study of October–December East African rainfall.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128 (585): 2239–2256. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.01.190.
Plotz, R. D., L. E. Chambers, and C. K. Finn. 2017. “The best of both worlds: A decision-making framework for combining traditional and contemporary forecast systems climate and oceans support program in the Pacific.” J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 56 (8): 2377–2392. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0012.1.
Regonda, S. K., B. Rajagopalan, M. Clark, and E. Zagona. 2006. “A multimodel ensemble forecast framework: Application to spring seasonal flows in the Gunnison River Basin.” Water Resour. Res. 42 (9): 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004653.
Ridge, O., J. W. Hurrell, L. Alamos, and L. Berkeley. 2013. “The Community Earth System Model: A framework for collaborative research.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94 (Sep): 1339–1360. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1.
Saha, S., et al. 2006. “The NCEP climate forecast system.” J. Clim. 19 (15): 3483–3517. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3812.1.
Schepen, A., Q. J. Wang, and D. E. Robertson. 2012. “Combining the strengths of statistical and dynamical modeling approaches for forecasting Australian seasonal rainfall.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 117 (D20): 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018011.
Segele, Z. T., and P. J. Lamb. 2005. “Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia.” Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 89 (1–4): 153–180. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0127-x.
Segele, Z. T., P. J. Lamb, and L. M. Leslie. 2009. “Seasonal-to-interannual variability of Ethiopia/horn of Africa monsoon.” J. Clim. 22 (12): 3396–3421. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2859.1.
Shanko, D., and P. Camberlin. 1998. “The effects of the southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones on Ethiopian drought.” Int. J. Climatol. 18 (12): 1373–1388. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(1998100)18:12%3C1373::AID-JOC313%3E3.0.CO;2-K.
Shukla, S., C. Funk, and A. Hoell. 2014a. “Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of national multi-model ensemble March-April-May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa.” Vol. 9 of Environmental research letters. London: IOP Publishing.
Shukla, S., and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2011. “Seasonal hydrologic prediction in the United States: Understanding the role of initial hydrologic conditions and seasonal climate forecast skill.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15 (11): 3529–3538. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3529-2011.
Shukla, S., A. McNally, G. Husak, and C. Funk. 2014b. “A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18 (10): 3907–3921. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3907-2014.
Shukla, S., J. Roberts, A. Hoell, C. C. Funk, F. Robertson, and B. Kirtman. 2016. “Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa.” Clim. Dyn. 1–17. in press. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3296-z.
Siam, M. S., and E. A. B. Eltahir. 2017. “Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow.” Nat. Clim. Change 7 (5): 350–354. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3273.
Turner, S. W. D., J. C. Bennett, D. E. Robertson, and S. Galelli. 2017. “Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 21 (9): 4841–4859. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017.
Viste, E., and A. Sorteberg. 2013. “Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands.” Int. J. Climatol. 33 (1): 249–263. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3409.
Webster, P. J., and S. Yang. 1992. “Monsoon and Enso: Selectively interactive systems.” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 118 (507): 877–926. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711850705.
Wood, A. W., L. R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2004. “Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs.” Clim. Change 62 (1–3): 189–216. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9e.
Yancheva, G., N. R. Nowaczyk, J. Mingram, P. Dulski, G. Schettler, J. F. W. Negendank, J. Liu, D. M. Sigman, L. C. Peterson, and G. H. Haug. 2007. “Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East Asian monsoon.” Nature 445 (7123): 74–77. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05431.
Yates, D. N., and K. M. Strzepek. 1998. “Modeling the Nile basin under climatic change.” J. Hydrol. Eng. 3 (2): 98–108. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1998)3:2(98).
Yeshanew, A., and M. R. Jury. 2007. “North African climate variability. Part 3: Resource prediction.” Theor. Appl. Climatol. 89 (1–2): 51–62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-006-0262-4.
Zhang, Y., S. Moges, and P. Block. 2016. “Optimal cluster analysis for objective regionalization of seasonal precipitation in regions of high spatial-temporal variability: Application to western Ethiopia.” J. Clim. 29 (10): 3697–3717. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0582.1.
Zhang, Y., S. Moges, and P. Block. 2018. “Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 22 (1): 143–157. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-70.
Zhao, T., J. C. Bennett, Q. J. Wang, A. Schepen, A. W. Wood, D. E. Robertson, and M-H. Ramos. 2017. “How suitable is quantile mapping for post-processing GCM precipitation forecasts?” J. Clim. 30 (9): 3185–3196. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0652.1.
Ziervogel, G., and A. Opere. 2010. Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts for the agricultural sector: Lessons from participatory action research in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change adaptation in Africa learning paper series. Ottawa: International Development Research Centre.
Zwick, W. R., and W. F. Velicer. 1986. “Comparison of five rules for determining the number of components to retain.” Psychol. Bull. 99 (3): 432–442. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.99.3.432.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145 • Issue 5 • May 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 9, 2018
Accepted: Sep 7, 2018
Published online: Feb 18, 2019
Published in print: May 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jul 18, 2019
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.