Quantifying Hydraulic and Water Quality Uncertainty to Inform Sampling of Drinking Water Distribution Systems
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145, Issue 1
Abstract
Sampling of drinking water distribution systems is performed to ensure good water quality and protect public health. Sampling also satisfies regulatory requirements and is done to respond to customer complaints or emergency situations. Water distribution system modeling techniques can be used to plan and inform sampling strategies. However, a high degree of accuracy and confidence in the hydraulic and water quality models is required to support real-time response. One source of error in these models is related to uncertainty in model input parameters. Effective characterization of these uncertainties and their effect on contaminant transport during a contamination incident is critical for providing confidence estimates in model-based design and evaluation of different sampling strategies. In this paper, the effects of uncertainty in customer demand, isolation valve status, bulk reaction rate coefficient, contaminant injection location, start time, duration, and rate on the size and location of the contaminant plume are quantified for two example water distribution systems. Results show that the most important parameter was the injection location. The size of the plume was also affected by the reaction rate coefficient, injection rate, and injection duration, whereas the exact location of the plume was additionally affected by the isolation valve status. Uncertainty quantification provides a more complete picture of how contaminants move within a water distribution system and more information when using modeling results to select sampling locations.
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Data Availability Statement
Data generated or analyzed during the study are available from the corresponding author by request.
Acknowledgments
Disclaimer
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through its Office of Research and Development funded and managed the research described herein under Interagency Agreement (IA #DW8992403601) with the Department of Energy’s Sandia National Laboratories. It has been reviewed by the Agency but does not necessarily reflect the Agency’s views. No official endorsement should be inferred. EPA does not endorse the purchase or sale of any commercial products or services.
Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc. for the US Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the US Department of Energy or the United States Government.
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 145 • Issue 1 • January 2019
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 25, 2018
Accepted: May 30, 2018
Published online: Oct 25, 2018
Published in print: Jan 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Mar 25, 2019
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