Costs of Water Quality Goals under Climate Change in Urbanizing Watersheds: Difficult Run, Virginia
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 143, Issue 9
Abstract
Reducing nutrient loadings in urban areas is important for water quality improvement programs in many watersheds. Urban nutrient loadings are expected to increase and become more variable under climate change (CC). In this study, a water quality simulation model (SWMM), land cover data layers, and mathematical programming models were used to compare costs of abating nutrient loads under CC in the Difficult Run Watershed located in Fairfax County, Virginia. Predicted costs of abating mean total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended sediment (TSS) loadings under current climate conditions were compared with those for CC under certainty with a Cost Minimization Model and under uncertainty with a Safety First Model. Total nitrogen loadings abatement had the highest cost followed by TP and TSS abatement in that order. Costs of controlling TP and TSS increased with CC, whereas there was little change in TN control costs. Introducing uncertainty of loadings caused control costs to increase substantially for all three pollutants. The preferred pollutant control strategy was urban stream restoration. Policy makers seeking to meet water quality goals over a multiyear horizon should consider front-loading supplemental best management practices (BMPs) to offset the changes in nutrient loadings predicted for CC.
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Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation, Water, Sustainability, and Climate Initiative (Grant No. CBET-1360280), and by USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) Project No. VA-135911. The authors express appreciation to Andrew Ross and Ray Najjar for assistance in generating weather for the regional CC scenario, and to David Sample for assistance with adapting the SWMM model to the study area.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 143 • Issue 9 • September 2017
Copyright
©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 21, 2016
Accepted: Jan 30, 2017
Published online: Jul 7, 2017
Published in print: Sep 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Dec 7, 2017
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