Uncertainty Analysis in Geospatial Merit Matrix–Based Hydropower Resource Assessment
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 142, Issue 8
Abstract
Hydraulic head and mean annual streamflow, two main input parameters in hydropower resource assessment, are not measured at every point along the stream. Translation and interpolation are used to derive these parameters, resulting in uncertainties. This study estimates the uncertainties and their effects on model output parameters: the total potential power and the number of potential locations (stream-reach). These parameters are quantified through Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) linking with a geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment (GMM-HRA) model. The methodology is applied to flat, mild, and steep terrains. Results show that the uncertainty associated with the hydraulic head is within 20% for mild and steep terrains, and the uncertainty associated with streamflow is around 16% for all three terrains. Output uncertainty increases as input uncertainty increases. However, output uncertainty is around 10–20% of the input uncertainty, demonstrating the robustness of the GMM-HRA model. Hydraulic head is more sensitive to output parameters in steep terrain than in flat and mild terrains. Mean annual streamflow is more sensitive to output parameters in flat terrain.
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Acknowledgments
This research was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Wind and Water Power Technologies Program. Support from California State University–Fresno is also acknowledged. This paper was coauthored by employees of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed by UT Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Accordingly, the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States government purposes. The U.S. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan).
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 142 • Issue 8 • August 2016
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 6, 2015
Accepted: Jan 7, 2016
Published online: Mar 30, 2016
Published in print: Aug 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Aug 30, 2016
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