Optimal Operation of the Multireservoir System in the Seine River Basin Using Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts
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VIEW THE ORIGINAL ARTICLEPublication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 142, Issue 1
Abstract
This article investigates the improvement of the operation of a four-reservoir system in the Seine River basin, France, by use of deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts and real-time control. In the current management, each reservoir is operated independently from the others and following prescribed rule-curves, designed to reduce floods and sustain low flows under the historical hydrological conditions. However, this management system is inefficient when inflows are significantly different from their seasonal average and may become even more inadequate to cope with the predicted increase in extreme events induced by climate change. In this work, a centralized real-time control system is developed to improve reservoirs operation by exploiting numerical weather forecasts that are becoming increasingly available. The proposed management system implements a well-established optimization technique, model predictive control (MPC), and its recently modified version that can incorporate uncertainties, tree-based model predictive control (TB-MPC), to account for deterministic and ensemble forecasts respectively. The management system is assessed by simulation over historical events and compared to the no-forecasts strategy based on rule-curves. Simulation results show that the proposed real-time control system largely outperforms the no-forecasts management strategy, and that explicitly considering forecast uncertainty through ensembles can compensate for the loss in performance due to forecast inaccuracy.
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Acknowledgments
This paper is dedicated to the memory of our bright colleague, Prof. Peter-Jules Van Overloop, who passed away in February 2015. This work is a case study application of the EU-FP7 CLIMAWARE project under the 2nd IWRM-NET Funding Initiative for Research in Integrated Water Resources Management. The authors are grateful to Maria-Helena Ramos and Guillaume Thirel from Irstea-HBAN (Antony, France), who helped collecting and analyzing hindcast weather forecasts time series. River flow data were provided by Seine Grands Lacs, meteorological data by Meteo-France, and weather forecasts by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). F. Pianosi is supported by the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council [CREDIBLE Project; grant number NE/J017450/1].
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 142 • Issue 1 • January 2016
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 24, 2014
Accepted: May 28, 2015
Published online: Jul 15, 2015
Discussion open until: Dec 15, 2015
Published in print: Jan 1, 2016
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